Munich Security Conference to open amid doubts over U.S. commitment to Europe

Europe heads into the Munich Security Conference, 13 February, amid deepening unease over U.S. policy, as President Donald Trump’s hard-line stance on defence, trade and territory fuels doubts about Washington’s long-term commitment to transatlantic security.

More than 50 world leaders, including NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, are expected to attend the three-day event, which runs until 15 February.

The conference comes one year after U.S. Vice-President JD Vance delivered a speech at MSC criticising European migration and free speech policies and warning that the continent’s greatest threats may come from within. The address shocked many in Europe and set the tone for a period in which U.S. foreign policy under President Trump has challenged long-standing alliances.

Political analyst Nuno Wahnon Martins told AnewZ that U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s message at the MSC is likely to echo last year’s themes, though in a less confrontational tone than VP Vance, stressing that American taxpayers should not be expected to shoulder the cost of global security alone.

The latest U.S. National Security Strategy calls on Europe to “stand on its own feet” and take “primary responsibility for its own defence,” fuelling concerns that Washington may no longer fully underpin European security.

The Trump administration’s recent territorial ambitions regarding Greenland, alongside trade disputes and uneven support for Ukraine, seem to have added to unease about the reliability of U.S. commitments.

Meanwhile, Sir Alex Younger, former chief of the UK’s Secret Intelligence Service, MI6, told the press the UK still benefits from security, military and intelligence relationship with United States.

"You’ve got a continent of 500 million [Europe], asking a continent of 300 million [U.S.] to deal with a continent of 140 million [Russia]. It’s the wrong way around. So I believe that Europe should take more responsibility for its own defence," Younger stated.

Shift in politics

This year's Munich Security Report (a document published each February ahead of the conference) titled "Under Destruction" warns of "wrecking-ball politics" in the international order, identifying the U.S. as the country most prominently associated with this shift.

The report argues that Washington is challenging principles that have shaped international cooperation for decades, from multilateral institutions and rules-based trade to partnerships with democratic allies.

The report states that cautious reforms are increasingly giving way to radical restructuring aimed at dismantling existing systems. According to the MSC document, this shift has fostered “unsteady” relations with Europe, characterised by “reassurance, conditionality and coercion.”

The conference will also address the ongoing war in Ukraine, hybrid threats to Europe, and U.S. commitments in the Indo-Pacific.

“We are currently seeing the rise of political actors who do not promise reform or repair, but who are very explicit about wanting to tear down existing institutions, and we call them the demolition men,” said Sophie Eisentraut, Head of Research and Publications at the Munich Security Conference.

U.S.-NATO relations

While the conference raises questions about the strength of the transatlantic alliance, U.S. Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker rejected claims that Washington intends to undermine NATO, stating, “We’re trying to make NATO stronger, not to withdraw or reject NATO, but make it work like it was intended as an alliance of 32 strong and capable allies.”

Whitaker also emphasised that European allies must increase defence spending and deliver on commitments, including NATO’s spending targets.

As Europe grapples with uncertainty, some countries are pursuing dual-track approaches, maintaining U.S. engagement while boosting independent defence capabilities.

The MSC report highlights that while the upheaval presents risks, it may also create opportunities, including the emergence of new partnerships in trade, security and technology, potentially reducing Europe’s reliance on the United States.

The Munich Security Conference promises to offer insight into how Europe, the U.S., and other global powers intend to navigate a rapidly shifting geopolitical environment, even as the stability of long-standing alliances remains in question.

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