The recent peace process between Armenia and Azerbaijan has reignited a sensitive debate in Georgia: does regional normalisation strengthen Georgia’s position or threaten its long-standing role as the South Caucasus’ key transit hub?
The discussion intensified after Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev said at the World Economic Forum in Davos that Armenia had requested the possibility of transit to Russia via Azerbaijan, suggesting that direct routes could emerge in the future. While the statement did not mention replacing Georgia, reactions in Tbilisi were immediate and sharply divided.
This division reflects not only differing political positions, but deeper anxieties about Georgia’s geopolitical relevance in a rapidly-changing regional order.
Representatives of the ruling Georgian Dream Party argue that peace in the South Caucasus is a strategic opportunity rather than a threat. Parliamentary Committee Chairmen Irakli Kadagishvili and Davit Matikashvili both emphasised that Georgia’s transit function has never depended on conflict between its neighbours. Instead, they point to existing infrastructure, such as pipelines, railways, ports, and energy corridors, which anchor Georgia firmly into East-West trade routes.
Their argument aligns with established transit economics: major corridors are not solely built around geography, but also around infrastructure density access to sea routes and international financing.
The opposition, however, frames the situation differently. Leaders from “Lelo - Strong Georgia” warn that Georgia risks losing a geopolitical advantage it has pursued since independence, accusing the government of alienating Western partners and allowing Armenia to reposition itself as a more reliable regional interlocutor.
This framing turns a technical transit discussion into a broader political question: is Georgia losing relevance due to infrastructure changes, or due to diplomatic credibility?
Studies by the World Bank, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Asian Development Bank consistently show that new transport routes rarely replace existing ones in the short or medium term. Instead, they tend to diversify flows, reduce bottlenecks, and increase overall regional trade volumes.
Georgia’s transit role is embedded in several structural advantages:
· direct access to the Black Sea;
· integration into European Union (EU)-backed initiatives such as the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route;
· existing oil and gas pipelines linking Azerbaijan to European markets;
· long-standing logistics infrastructure built over decades.
By contrast, Armenia’s transport network has been historically constrained by closed borders and limited maritime access. While normalisation with Azerbaijan could unlock new routes, building competitive capacity requires time, capital, and political stability.
Despite claims of international isolation, Georgia has maintained active high-level engagement with both Armenia and Azerbaijan in recent months. Bilateral visits, trilateral formats, and economic cooperation discussions indicate an attempt to remain relevant in a post-conflict regional architecture.
This aligns with the concept of “middle power adaptation” - smaller states adjusting their diplomacy to avoid marginalisation during systemic shifts.
The current debate in Georgia is less about immediate transit losses and more about future positioning. Structurally, Georgia’s transit role remains intact. Politically, uncertainty fuels competing narratives: one emphasising resilience; the other warning of decline.
Oil prices fell after the U.S. expanded economic sanctions on Iran, as Tehran vowed to retaliate and warned it had tools to respond, raising concer...
Kyiv has recently received a small number of U.S.-made Patriot interceptors capable of downing Russian ballistic miss...
Canada has announced nearly $20 billion in retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods and billions in support for workers and businesses, escalating its tra...
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Monday that Kyiv wants peace but will not surrender to Russia, as foreign leaders joined Independence Day events marking 35 years since Ukraine’s independence.
Oil prices fell after the U.S. expanded economic sanctions on Iran, as Tehran vowed to retaliate and warned it had tools to respond, raising concerns over potential disruption to regional oil supplies.
A newly created pro-government political party has secured a commanding victory in Kazakhstan's snap parliamentary election, according to exit polls, strengthening President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev's influence at a pivotal moment in the country's political transition.
Only four commodity vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, following 13 transits a day earlier, as disruptions continue to restrict traffic through the key energy chokepoint.
Kyiv has recently received a small number of U.S.-made Patriot interceptors capable of downing Russian ballistic missiles, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said. It comes as Britain and France pledged stronger military support for Ukraine.
Central Asia is moving beyond experiments with digital assets as governments begin putting new forms of digital money into practice.
Parents in Gaza are being urged to stop their children flying kites after Israel threatened tougher military action over those drifting across the border.
Armenia is “free” to leave the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO), Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov has said. He made the remarks after Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said he would be “very pleased” if the Russian-led military alliance expelled Armenia.
Armenia’s Anti-Corruption Committee has disclosed details of a criminal case involving former President Robert Kocharyan, saying he and five other people - including his son - have been detained as part of a corruption investigation.
Saudi Arabia and France have reaffirmed their support for Palestinian statehood and called for Israel to withdraw from all Lebanese territory, as the two countries sought closer coordination on some of the Middle East’s most pressing conflicts.
You can download the AnewZ application from Play Store and the App Store.
What is your opinion on this topic?
Leave the first comment