Azerbaijan-Armenia peace process faces trust and political challenges, analyst says

Economic cooperation could play a key role in advancing the Azerbaijan-Armenia peace process, but persistent trust deficits, political uncertainty in Armenia, and regional geopolitical tensions continue to challenge its long-term sustainability, an analyst said.

Murad Maradov, Deputy Director at the Topchubashov Centre in Baku, told AnewZ that the normalisation process between Azerbaijan and Armenia is at a critical stage, influenced by upcoming elections in Armenia and ongoing political debates around the peace agenda. 

He added that opposition forces in Armenia continue to question the benefits of the process, while the broader regional context remains sensitive despite official declarations that key conflict issues have been resolved.

The analyst said economic and infrastructure cooperation could help shift the region “from a space of competition into a space of cooperation,” but argued that ideological and nationalist narratives often outweigh pragmatic approaches.

Energy and transport connectivity

The analyst also pointed to energy and transport connectivity as key areas of potential cooperation, noting Armenia’s dependence on Russian gas and discussions around alternative infrastructure routes, including the reconstruction of Soviet-era pipelines.

He also highlighted that projects such as the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) could improve regional connectivity and offer benefits for both sides.

The initiative gained momentum following the trilateral summit between Azerbaijan, Armenia and the United States in Washington on 8 August 2025, which established a framework for continued engagement. The TRIPP aims to develop transit routes, highways and railways, through Armenia, connecting Azerbaijan with its exclave Nakhichivan.

• President Ilham Aliyev says TRIPP corridor’s name signals long-term U.S. commitment
• Armenia says core transit issues resolved under TRIPP framework

Commenting on wider geopolitical risks, he said uncertainty linked to Middle East tensions and U.S. involvement could affect implementation timelines, though Azerbaijan’s experience in infrastructure development and investor interest could help sustain progress.

Peace-building efforts and political will

On peace-building initiatives, the analyst said Azerbaijan’s recent bilateral roundtable under the ‘Peace Bridge’ initiative reflects a broader effort to sustain dialogue at multiple levels.

The meeting, held from 10 to 12 April, brought together civil society, expert and media representatives from both countries.

In contrast to past approaches, he said current government-level engagement provides stronger momentum, adding, “Right now what we have is the two governments are really committed to the peace agenda.”

• Azerbaijan-Armenia dialogue advances with ‘Peace Bridge’ roundtable

He added that if political support continues, the process could see “brighter days ahead.”

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Azerbaijan Armenia peace process South Caucasus energy Security transport