Armenia sends dual signal on peace amid election pressure, says analyst

Armenia’s current peace rhetoric sends a dual message, balancing signals of readiness for reconciliation with Azerbaijan while maintaining a hard line on security amid an election period, says political analyst.

Speaking in the AnewZ studio, political analyst Ulviyya Zulfikar described Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s recent remarks on peace with Azerbaijan and military preparedness as a “dual-track signal” aimed at different audiences.

“Externally, Armenia is reassuring that it is ready for peace,” Zulfikar said. “Internally, it is showing that there is no compromise on national security, especially during an election period.”

Her comments come after Nikol Pashinyan said Armenia is not preparing for war and described peace with Azerbaijan as the country’s “most reliable” security guarantee, in a message marking the 34th anniversary of Armenia’s Armed Forces.

“There will be no war,” Pashinyan said, adding that peace offers the strongest assurance of national security.

Zulfikar warned that continued arms purchases during an ongoing peace process could undermine regional stability, noting Armenia’s reported weapons deals with third countries.

“During the war period, it was understandable,” she said. “But during the peace process, this creates risks. Selling weapons to one of the parties in such a sensitive period is very risky for the region.”

She stressed that genuine progress toward peace requires restraint as well as political commitment. “If Armenia wants peace, it has to obey the rules of the peace process,” Zulfikar said, adding that militarisation contradicts efforts to de-escalate tensions.

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According to analyst, the benefits of peace would be substantial, particularly for Armenia.

“This peace process has economic, trade and security benefits, first of all for Armenia itself,” she said, noting that Armenia’s previous occupation policy had left it isolated from regional economic and trade networks.

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Peace treaty prospects and international engagement

Turning to the prospects of a peace treaty, Zulfikar said the Washington summit marked a decisive turning point.

“Everything is going toward this peace treaty,” she said, adding that key remaining obstacles include constitutional amendments in Armenia, which Azerbaijan has said are necessary for long-term stability.

She also pointed to growing international engagement, particularly by the United States, as a sign that the peace process is being closely monitored.

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Zulfikar highlighted the importance of regional transit routes, saying they could unlock economic benefits not only for Armenia and Azerbaijan but for the wider region.

“This is about development,” she said. “It’s beneficial first for Armenia, then for Azerbaijan, and for all regional countries.”

Looking ahead, Zulfikar said Armenia’s upcoming elections would be critical.

“There is no way to withdraw from this process,” she said. “If Armenia pulls back, the peace process and regional projects could collapse, and that would have serious consequences domestically.”

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News Politics Trump elections Political analysis South Caucasus Regional Stability Armenia Azerbaijan