View: EU’s strategic shift in South Caucasus connectivity

The European Union’s interest in investing in regional connectivity projects in the South Caucasus, such as the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) is driven by a need for strategic credibility and a tangible foreign policy success, according to a regional expert.

Speaking to AnewZ from Tbilisi, Georgia, Dr. George Mchedlishvili, Associate Professor at European University, said the EU is seeking a “success story” at a time when its institutional, financial and security limitations have been increasingly exposed.

“The European Union needs a success story. There has been a dearth, a deficit in success stories,” Dr. Mchedlishvili said, arguing that the war in Ukraine has laid bare structural weaknesses within the bloc.

Assessments by the European Council on Foreign Relations and policy reviews published by the European Commission since 2022 have acknowledged that the war exposed gaps in the EU’s rapid decision-making, defence readiness and financial mobilisation capacity.

He noted that these pressures have left the EU in a significantly weaker position, prompting Brussels to look for areas where it can demonstrate effective leadership.

According to Dr. Mchedlishvili, the South Caucasus represents one such opportunity.

He pointed to the EU’s long-standing engagement with countries in the region, suggesting that deeper involvement in connectivity initiatives could open a new strategic front, particularly if pursued alongside the United States.

The European Commission and the European External Action Service have repeatedly identified the South Caucasus as a key pillar of the EU’s Global Gateway strategy, which prioritises transport, energy and digital corridors linking Europe with the Caspian basin and Central Asia, including the so-called Middle Corridor, as outlined in official EU ministerial statements and investment forums held in 2023–2024.

Shared goals

“This could be one important area where the United States and the European Union could look eye to eye,” he said, adding that recent U.S. strategic reviews show few regions where transatlantic priorities align so closely.

U.S. State Department briefings and Congressional Research Service reports have highlighted regional connectivity in the South Caucasus as an area of growing American interest, particularly in relation to supply-chain resilience, energy diversification and alternatives to Russia- and China-controlled routes.

He stressed that the combined political and economic weight of the EU and the United States gives their involvement added significance. As two major Western security providers and economic powerhouses, their shared investment in the South Caucasus could help shape long-term stability and prosperity.

Peace in South Caucasus

Dr. Mchedlishvili argued that political will from Brussels and Washington would directly support peace efforts in the region, as both sides appear to share a common objective of fostering a peaceful and stable neighbourhood in the South Caucasus.

This view aligns with statements by EU Council President Charles Michel and U.S. officials involved in Armenia–Azerbaijan mediation, who have framed connectivity and economic integration as confidence-building tools linked to long-term regional stability.

“They do want peace in the South Caucasus,” he said, noting that this convergence of interests could facilitate progress on regional cooperation and connectivity.

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He also highlighted the evolving political landscape in Armenia, suggesting that the current leadership is seeking to capitalise on shifting geopolitical dynamics. In his view, this creates additional momentum for external actors looking to advance connectivity projects tied to broader peace and development agendas.

Dr. Mchedlishvili concluded that while the EU faces multiple challenges, meaningful engagement in South Caucasus connectivity could serve both as a strategic investment and as a demonstration of renewed European relevance on the international stage.

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