Kazakhstan, Russia, Saudi Arabia and other key OPEC+ countries have agreed a paper-based modest oil output hike for next month, raising the output targets to 188,000 barrels a day in June.
After the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, this is the third consecutive monthly increase, OPEC+ (Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) said in a statement after an online meeting on Sunday.
The move is designed to show the group is ready to raise supplies once the war stops and signals the bloc is pressing on with managing supplies. The countries are operating 'business-as-usual' approach despite the departure of the UAE from OPEC+ on 1 May, OPEC+ sources and analysts said.
“OPEC+ is sending a two-layer message to the market: continuity despite the UAE’s exit, and control despite limited physical impact", said Jorge Leon who is an analyst at Rystad and former OPEC official.
“While output is increasing on paper, the real impact on physical supply remains very limited given the Strait of Hormuz constraints. This is less about adding barrels and more about signaling that OPEC+ still calls the shots", he added.
Top OPEC+ producer Saudi Arabia’s quota will rise to 10.2 million barrels per day in June under the agreement which is far above actual production. The kingdom reported actual production of 7.76 million bpd to OPEC in March.
The increase is the same as that agreed for May minus the share of the United Arab Emirates.
There are now 12 core members including Iran, left in the group since UAE's departure. In recent years only seven nations - Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, Russia, Oman (and the UAE prior to departure) - have been involved in voluntary production adjustments. These seven are due to meet again on 7 June.
Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, the key cruicial chokepoint, from the day of the U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran which began on 28 February. The result of this was exports from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait and the UAE were heavily reduced.
Even when shipping through the Strait of Hormuz reopens, it will take several weeks if not months for flows to normalise, oil executives from the Gulf and global oil traders have said.
Around 20% of the world's supplies have historically run through the key 21km-wide waterway between Iran and Oman.
Prices for Brent have increased to above $125 per barrel, breaking a four-year record.
The supply disruption has propelled oil prices to a four-year high above $125 per barrel as analysts begin to predict widespread jet fuel shortages in one to two months and a spike in global inflation. Some airlines are considering merging same-destination flights with competitors.
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The decision by the United Arab Emirates to leave OPEC+ on 1 May has put renewed focus on one of the most influential groups in global energy - and how its decisions can shape oil prices worldwide.
The European Commission sees no immediate impact on the European Union's security of oil supply from the escalating conflict in the Middle East, it said in an email to EU governments, seen by Reuters on Monday (2 March).
OPEC+ is expected to maintain its current oil production levels at meetings scheduled for Sunday, as the alliance weighs the risks of an emerging supply glut against ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, four OPEC+ sources told reporters this week.
The Organization of Petroleum exporting countries OPEC+ is likely to consider a larger oil production increase of 411,000 barrels per day for November at its meeting next Sunday as rising oil prices encourage the group to try to regain more market share, said sources familiar with the talks.
President Trump has issued a warning to the international community, claiming a nuclear-armed Iran would strike Israel "very quickly" before targeting Europe and the United States.
Ukraine is monitoring “unusual activity” along its border with Belarus, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a video statement released on Saturday (2 May). He warned that Kyiv is ready to respond if necessary amid continued regional tensions linked to Russia’s war.
Hundreds of young people in South Korea have gathered in Seoul to take part in a city-backed “power nap contest”, aimed at drawing attention to the country’s chronic sleep deprivation.
Türkiye’s Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz is set to visit Armenia in early May to take part in the 8th European Political Community Summit, in what will be the highest-level Turkish visit to the country to date. Meanwhile, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is reportedly expected to miss the forum.
China has moved to block U.S. sanctions on five of its oil refineries, in a fresh escalation of tensions over trade and energy policy.
A tanker reported being hit by unknown projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz, a maritime security organisation said on Monday, shortly after President Donald Trump said the U.S. would start helping free ships stranded in the Gulf by the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran.
U.S. President Donald Trump has said the United States will begin efforts on Monday (4 May) to help free vessels stranded in the Strait of Hormuz, describing the move as a humanitarian effort aimed at neutral countries.
U.S. President Donald Trump has said he will “soon be reviewing” a new 14-point proposal sent by Iran, casting doubt on the chances of a deal after Tehran called for security guarantees, an end to naval blockades and a halt to the war across the region, including in Lebanon.
U.S. President Donald Trump told reporters he was "not satisfied" with Iran's latest peace proposal, which was delivered to Washington via Pakistani mediators on Friday (1 May).
U.S. President Donald Trump declared that a ceasefire had "terminated" hostilities against Iran, as he sought to bolster his argument that he does not need lawmakers' permission to continue the conflict.
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