OPEC+ set to hold oil output policy steady, sources say

OPEC+ is expected to maintain its current oil production levels at meetings scheduled for Sunday, as the alliance weighs the risks of an emerging supply glut against ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, four OPEC+ sources told reporters this week.

The decision comes as the bloc, which produces roughly half of the world’s oil, faces slowing demand and heightened volatility in energy markets. Ministers have already begun online consultations ahead of Sunday’s formal session.

According to insiders, the group is leaning towards leaving production unchanged, marking a cautious pause in its broader strategy to regain market share. The move reflects concerns that ramping up supply could deepen the recent price slump.

Brent crude closed near $63 a barrel on Friday, down about 15 percent since the start of 2025, as oversupply worries continue to weigh on the market.

The timing of the meeting coincides with renewed U.S.-brokered efforts to secure a Russia–Ukraine peace deal, which could have significant implications for global energy flows. If sanctions on Moscow were eased as part of an agreement, Russian oil could return to international markets in larger volumes.

However, a failure of the peace initiative could see Russian exports restricted even further under existing or expanded sanctions, creating fresh uncertainty for the alliance’s long-term planning.

OPEC+, which brings together members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies led by Russia, has already paused output hikes through the first quarter of 2026 after releasing around 2.9 million barrels per day (bpd) since April 2025. The group still holds about 3.24 million bpd of cuts — roughly 3 percent of global demand — and is unlikely to adjust those levels this weekend.

Instead, ministers are expected to turn their attention to reviewing production capacity baselines to guide output quotas for 2027 and beyond. The issue has long divided members:

The United Arab Emirates has expanded capacity and is seeking higher quotas.

Several African producers, meanwhile, have seen output fall but oppose reductions to their quotas.

The internal tension over production rights has persisted for years — leading Angola to withdraw from OPEC+ in 2024 after a quota dispute.

Analysts say that, for now, OPEC+ appears determined to preserve market stability rather than risk another price slide.

“Maintaining current levels is the safest course for now,” one delegate said. “There’s too much uncertainty — both politically and in the markets.”

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