The European Commission sees no immediate impact on the European Union's security of oil supply from the escalating conflict in the Middle East, it said in an email to EU governments, seen by Reuters on Monday (2 March).
"At this stage, we do not foresee an immediate oil SOS (security of supply) impact," the Commission email said.
The Commission is considering convening an ad-hoc meeting of its Oil Coordination Group later this week. Member states have been asked to share their assessments of oil supply security by the end of the day on Monday.
Romania has reported having enough fuel reserves for 30 days and stated that all measures are in place to prevent price surges.
Shipping companies are wary of attacks and unable to obtain insurance against conflicts as this crucial waterway handles around 20% of the world’s oil and gas.
Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy, said, "The most immediate and tangible development affecting oil markets is the effective halt of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, preventing 15 million barrels per day of crude oil from reaching markets. Unless de-escalation signals emerge swiftly, we expect a significant upward repricing of oil."
Military strikes by the United States and Israel on Iran continue, while Iran has responded with missile barrages.
President Donald Trump suggested to the UK's Daily Mail that the conflict could last four more weeks, with attacks continuing until U.S. objectives are met.
While the Strait of Hormuz has not been blocked, its strategic importance, handling around a fifth of the world’s seaborne oil trade and 20% of liquefied natural gas-means any disruption can significantly impact global energy markets.
A prolonged spike in oil prices could reignite inflationary pressures globally, acting as a tax on businesses and consumers and potentially dampening demand.
OPEC+ agreed to a modest oil output boost of 206,000 barrels per day for April, but much of that product still needs to leave the Middle East by tanker.
Alan Gelder, SVP of refining, chemicals and oil markets at Wood Mackenzie, said: "The nearest historical analogue is the Middle East oil embargo of the 1970s, which increased oil prices by 300% to around $12/bbl in 1974. That is only US$90/bbl in 2026 terms. Eclipsing this in today’s market, given significant supply losses, seems very achievable."
Brent crude LCOc1 was last up 9% at $78.9 a barrel, set for its biggest daily jump since 2020's COVID-19-related turbulence and just surpassing its surge after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Benchmark European gas prices surged 37.5% to one-year highs.
In the Middle East, the UAE and Kuwait temporarily closed their stock markets citing "exceptional circumstances".
The oil shock rippled through currency markets with the dollar a main beneficiary. The U.S. is a net energy exporter and Treasuries are still considered a liquid haven in times of stress, shoving the euro down 0.2% to $1.1787 EUR=EBS.
While the Japanese yen is often a safe harbour, the country imports all of its oil making the flows more two-way. The dollar added 0.3% to 156.44 yen JPY=EBS.
Bonds attracted fresh buying on Friday after UK mortgage lender MFS was placed into administration amid allegations of financial irregularities. Its collapse stoked wider credit fears, with well-known big banks among its lenders. MFS had borrowed £2 billion ($2.69 billion).
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Leaders of countries from the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) have agreed to hold coordinated population censuses around 2030. They took the decision at the CIS Council of Heads of State meeting in Awaza, Turkmenistan on Friday, media reported.
The explosion at King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh on Saturday afternoon killed at least 12 people and injured a further 309, according to Saudi Arabia’s Civil Aviation Authority. The airport remains closed until further notice.
Britain and Israel have reached a temporary compromise over the future of the British Consulate General in East Jerusalem, easing a diplomatic dispute that had threatened to further strain relations between the two countries.
South African judge Navanethem “Navi” Pillay won the Nobel Peace Prize on Friday “for her efforts to promote peace and international law,” the Norwegian Nobel Committee said.
The U.S. has imposed sanctions on the International Criminal Court (ICC) on Friday (9 October) escalating tensions with European allies and potentially targeting companies that provide services to the tribunal. The move came hours after former ICC judge Navi Pillay won the Nobel Peace Prize.
Uzbekistan and Russia have a portfolio of more than 200 joint projects worth almost $6 billion, as the two countries continue to expand regional and business ties. The projects were discussed during the third meeting of the Council of Regions of Russia and Uzbekistan, held in Fergana, Uzbekistan.
In the marshlands of Malluba in southern Azerbaijan, Kamil Mammadov follows a routine that has been passed down through generations. His family has worked with medicinal leeches for centuries, harvesting and breeding a species known as Hirudo orientalis, or the Caucasian medicinal leech.
Baku is hosting the second Azerbaijan International Investment Forum (AIIF 2026) and it’s attracting more interest this year, Azerbaijan’s Deputy Prime Minister told AnewZ. “The agenda is very impressive. More guests, more interest,” he said.
Warren Buffett has stepped down as chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, marking the end of one of the most influential leadership tenures in corporate history and completing a succession process that has been years in the making.
Nigerian billionaire Aliko Dangote launched Africa's biggest-ever share sale on Monday, opening the oil refinery that has remade the country's fuel market to public ownership for the first time.
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