The European Commission sees no immediate impact on the European Union's security of oil supply from the escalating conflict in the Middle East, it said in an email to EU governments, seen by Reuters on Monday (2 March).
"At this stage, we do not foresee an immediate oil SOS (security of supply) impact," the Commission email said.
The Commission is considering convening an ad-hoc meeting of its Oil Coordination Group later this week. Member states have been asked to share their assessments of oil supply security by the end of the day on Monday.
Romania has reported having enough fuel reserves for 30 days and stated that all measures are in place to prevent price surges.
Shipping companies are wary of attacks and unable to obtain insurance against conflicts as this crucial waterway handles around 20% of the world’s oil and gas.
Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy, said, "The most immediate and tangible development affecting oil markets is the effective halt of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, preventing 15 million barrels per day of crude oil from reaching markets. Unless de-escalation signals emerge swiftly, we expect a significant upward repricing of oil."
Military strikes by the United States and Israel on Iran continue, while Iran has responded with missile barrages.
President Donald Trump suggested to the UK's Daily Mail that the conflict could last four more weeks, with attacks continuing until U.S. objectives are met.
While the Strait of Hormuz has not been blocked, its strategic importance, handling around a fifth of the world’s seaborne oil trade and 20% of liquefied natural gas-means any disruption can significantly impact global energy markets.
A prolonged spike in oil prices could reignite inflationary pressures globally, acting as a tax on businesses and consumers and potentially dampening demand.
OPEC+ agreed to a modest oil output boost of 206,000 barrels per day for April, but much of that product still needs to leave the Middle East by tanker.
Alan Gelder, SVP of refining, chemicals and oil markets at Wood Mackenzie, said: "The nearest historical analogue is the Middle East oil embargo of the 1970s, which increased oil prices by 300% to around $12/bbl in 1974. That is only US$90/bbl in 2026 terms. Eclipsing this in today’s market, given significant supply losses, seems very achievable."
Brent crude LCOc1 was last up 9% at $78.9 a barrel, set for its biggest daily jump since 2020's COVID-19-related turbulence and just surpassing its surge after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Benchmark European gas prices surged 37.5% to one-year highs.
In the Middle East, the UAE and Kuwait temporarily closed their stock markets citing "exceptional circumstances".
The oil shock rippled through currency markets with the dollar a main beneficiary. The U.S. is a net energy exporter and Treasuries are still considered a liquid haven in times of stress, shoving the euro down 0.2% to $1.1787 EUR=EBS.
While the Japanese yen is often a safe harbour, the country imports all of its oil making the flows more two-way. The dollar added 0.3% to 156.44 yen JPY=EBS.
Bonds attracted fresh buying on Friday after UK mortgage lender MFS was placed into administration amid allegations of financial irregularities. Its collapse stoked wider credit fears, with well-known big banks among its lenders. MFS had borrowed £2 billion ($2.69 billion).
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Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan have concluded talks in Bishkek, the capital of Kyrgyzstan, as leaders gather for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit.
Iran has reached an understanding with Oman on transit arrangements through the Strait of Hormuz, but the waterway will remain closed until the U.S. fulfils its commitments, a senior Iranian diplomat said on Saturday.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi accused U.S. government and Israel-aligned actors of manipulating energy markets to promote the war with Iran.
Russian strikes on the Kyiv region overnight killed 37 people, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said. Zelenskyy added that the Ukrainian capital was under "virtually nonstop attack" from drones.
U.S. forces struck two Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island on Sunday, with Tehran responding by launching ballistic missiles at two U.S. bases in Jordan in the first direct U.S.-Iran military escalation in weeks.
Online fast-fashion retailer Shein is seeking to raise up to $1.77 billion in a Hong Kong IPO after its valuation fell around 70 per cent from its private-market peak four years ago.
Kazakhstan has received a fresh vote of confidence in its economy after S&P Global Ratings upgraded the country’s credit rating, citing stronger public finances, solid reserves and steady economic growth.
AnewZ Business Europe, a new weekday programme, takes viewers inside companies driving growth and innovation across the continent, with Brickken CEO Edwin Mata joining the programme for its first episode with host Chief Global Editor Guy Shone. The show airs every Friday.
Once associated mainly with Muslim-majority countries, Islamic finance has become a global industry. Its assets reached around $5.98 trillion in 2024, according to ICD-LSEG, as more countries explore Shariah-compliant finance.
Fuel restrictions have returned to parts of Moscow and the surrounding region, adding another strain to Russia’s economy as refinery outages and rising imports weigh on the rouble.
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