The European Commission sees no immediate impact on the European Union's security of oil supply from the escalating conflict in the Middle East, it said in an email to EU governments, seen by Reuters on Monday (2 March).
"At this stage, we do not foresee an immediate oil SOS (security of supply) impact," the Commission email said.
The Commission is considering convening an ad-hoc meeting of its Oil Coordination Group later this week. Member states have been asked to share their assessments of oil supply security by the end of the day on Monday.
Romania has reported having enough fuel reserves for 30 days and stated that all measures are in place to prevent price surges.
Shipping companies are wary of attacks and unable to obtain insurance against conflicts as this crucial waterway handles around 20% of the world’s oil and gas.
Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy, said, "The most immediate and tangible development affecting oil markets is the effective halt of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, preventing 15 million barrels per day of crude oil from reaching markets. Unless de-escalation signals emerge swiftly, we expect a significant upward repricing of oil."
Military strikes by the United States and Israel on Iran continue, while Iran has responded with missile barrages.
President Donald Trump suggested to the UK's Daily Mail that the conflict could last four more weeks, with attacks continuing until U.S. objectives are met.
While the Strait of Hormuz has not been blocked, its strategic importance, handling around a fifth of the world’s seaborne oil trade and 20% of liquefied natural gas-means any disruption can significantly impact global energy markets.
A prolonged spike in oil prices could reignite inflationary pressures globally, acting as a tax on businesses and consumers and potentially dampening demand.
OPEC+ agreed to a modest oil output boost of 206,000 barrels per day for April, but much of that product still needs to leave the Middle East by tanker.
Alan Gelder, SVP of refining, chemicals and oil markets at Wood Mackenzie, said: "The nearest historical analogue is the Middle East oil embargo of the 1970s, which increased oil prices by 300% to around $12/bbl in 1974. That is only US$90/bbl in 2026 terms. Eclipsing this in today’s market, given significant supply losses, seems very achievable."
In the Middle East, the UAE and Kuwait temporarily closed their stock markets citing "exceptional circumstances".
The oil shock rippled through currency markets with the dollar a main beneficiary. The U.S. is a net energy exporter and Treasuries are still considered a liquid haven in times of stress, shoving the euro down 0.2% to $1.1787 EUR=EBS.
While the Japanese yen is often a safe harbour, the country imports all of its oil making the flows more two-way. The dollar added 0.3% to 156.44 yen JPY=EBS.
Bonds attracted fresh buying on Friday after UK mortgage lender MFS was placed into administration amid allegations of financial irregularities. Its collapse stoked wider credit fears, with well-known big banks among its lenders. MFS had borrowed £2 billion ($2.69 billion).
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Wall Street ended sharply lower on Tuesday as investors worried about artificial intelligence (AI) creating more competition for software makers, keeping them on edge ahead of quarterly reports from Alphabet and Amazon later this week.
U.S. stock markets finished mixed on Wednesday (28 January) as investors reacted calmly after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged, a decision that had been widely expected and largely priced in.
Wall Street closed sharply lower on Tuesday as global markets fell after U.S. President Donald Trump’s new tariff threats against Europe unsettled investors and revived fears of renewed volatility.
Wall Street closed higher on Tuesday, boosted by optimism over artificial intelligence (AI) and a strong rally in Moderna shares, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average approaching a record high.
Follow the latest developments and global reaction after the U.S. and Israel launched “major combat operations” in Iran, prompting retaliation from Tehran.
Ayatollah Alireza Arafi has moved into a pivotal constitutional role following the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, becoming the clerical member of Iran’s temporary leadership council under Article 111 of the Constitution of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Iran has been at the centre of a rapidly escalating regional crisis since Saturday, when U.S. and Israeli military strikes hit Tehran. The attack prompted retaliatory strikes by Tehran across the Middle East, civillian casualties, maritime disruptions and international diplomatic responses.
The United States and Israel have carried out large-scale strikes on Iranian leadership and military targets, with Iranian state media confirming that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed.
Türkiye raised its security level for Turkish-flagged vessels in the Strait of Hormuz to Level 3 on Sunday (2 March). The development follows Iranian restrictions on shipping after U.S. and Israeli strikes and confirmation of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s death.
Paramount Skydance emerged as the winner in a months-long battle to acquire Warner Bros Discovery after streaming giant Netflix on Thursday refused to raise its bid for the storied Hollywood studio.
Global debt surged to a record $348.3 trillion at the end of 2025, after nearly $29 trillion was added over the year, marking the fastest annual increase since the pandemic, according to the Institute of International Finance (IIF) report released on Wednesday.
Millions of Colombian roses have arrived in the United States just in time for Valentine’s Day, keeping the country on track as the world’s second-largest flower exporter. Between 15 January and 9 February, Colombia shipped roughly 65,000 tons of fresh-cut blooms.
Russia’s car market is continuing to receive tens of thousands of foreign-brand vehicles via China despite sanctions imposed after Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, a journalistic investigation has found.
Türkiye’s national energy company, TPAO, has struck a new cooperation deal with U.S. energy giant Chevron, signing a memorandum of understanding to explore joint oil and gas exploration and production opportunities, the Turkish Energy and Natural Resources Ministry announced on Thursday.
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