The European Commission sees no immediate impact on the European Union's security of oil supply from the escalating conflict in the Middle East, it said in an email to EU governments, seen by Reuters on Monday (2 March).
"At this stage, we do not foresee an immediate oil SOS (security of supply) impact," the Commission email said.
The Commission is considering convening an ad-hoc meeting of its Oil Coordination Group later this week. Member states have been asked to share their assessments of oil supply security by the end of the day on Monday.
Romania has reported having enough fuel reserves for 30 days and stated that all measures are in place to prevent price surges.
Shipping companies are wary of attacks and unable to obtain insurance against conflicts as this crucial waterway handles around 20% of the world’s oil and gas.
Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy, said, "The most immediate and tangible development affecting oil markets is the effective halt of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, preventing 15 million barrels per day of crude oil from reaching markets. Unless de-escalation signals emerge swiftly, we expect a significant upward repricing of oil."
Military strikes by the United States and Israel on Iran continue, while Iran has responded with missile barrages.
President Donald Trump suggested to the UK's Daily Mail that the conflict could last four more weeks, with attacks continuing until U.S. objectives are met.
While the Strait of Hormuz has not been blocked, its strategic importance, handling around a fifth of the world’s seaborne oil trade and 20% of liquefied natural gas-means any disruption can significantly impact global energy markets.
A prolonged spike in oil prices could reignite inflationary pressures globally, acting as a tax on businesses and consumers and potentially dampening demand.
OPEC+ agreed to a modest oil output boost of 206,000 barrels per day for April, but much of that product still needs to leave the Middle East by tanker.
Alan Gelder, SVP of refining, chemicals and oil markets at Wood Mackenzie, said: "The nearest historical analogue is the Middle East oil embargo of the 1970s, which increased oil prices by 300% to around $12/bbl in 1974. That is only US$90/bbl in 2026 terms. Eclipsing this in today’s market, given significant supply losses, seems very achievable."
Brent crude LCOc1 was last up 9% at $78.9 a barrel, set for its biggest daily jump since 2020's COVID-19-related turbulence and just surpassing its surge after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Benchmark European gas prices surged 37.5% to one-year highs.
In the Middle East, the UAE and Kuwait temporarily closed their stock markets citing "exceptional circumstances".
The oil shock rippled through currency markets with the dollar a main beneficiary. The U.S. is a net energy exporter and Treasuries are still considered a liquid haven in times of stress, shoving the euro down 0.2% to $1.1787 EUR=EBS.
While the Japanese yen is often a safe harbour, the country imports all of its oil making the flows more two-way. The dollar added 0.3% to 156.44 yen JPY=EBS.
Bonds attracted fresh buying on Friday after UK mortgage lender MFS was placed into administration amid allegations of financial irregularities. Its collapse stoked wider credit fears, with well-known big banks among its lenders. MFS had borrowed £2 billion ($2.69 billion).
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The U.S. has banned government employees working in Saudi Arabia from using airports in the country without special authorisation. It comes after a deadly Houthi strike on Riyadh's King Khalid International Airport killed at least 13 people last week.
U.S. President Donald Trump has called it “a disgrace” that Ukraine has resumed attacks on Russian oil refineries. Attacks are continuing from Russia and Ukraine as media reports say Ukraine has almost run out of Patriot interceptor missiles.
An unknown projectile struck a tanker 68 nautical miles northeast of Saudi Arabia on Friday according to a report released by the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) on Saturday.
France is preparing for a fresh wave of nationwide demonstrations this weekend as rising living costs, education concerns and growing political tensions converge into one of the most significant protest movements seen in the country in recent years.
Romanian rescuers resumed their search for seven missing sailors on Friday (16 October) after a drone strike set a chemical tanker ablaze near the country’s Black Sea coast. The attacks have raised fresh security concerns along a vital regional trade route.
U.S. President Donald Trump has lifted sanctions on Russian diesel exports and announced a Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire aimed at easing fuel prices ahead of November’s midterm elections. But can Moscow deliver and will the move will bring meaningful relief to markets?
Taiwan plans to buy 30 per cent of Alaska LNG's annual output and invest up to $4.4 billion in the project, but binding contracts and financing remain unresolved as the U.S. pushes to expand energy exports to Asia.
Asian stocks plunged to their lowest level in more than two months on Tuesday as advances by Chinese chipmakers rattled investor confidence in the artificial intelligence boom, despite soaring global semiconductor sales.
Artificial intelligence investment is helping sustain global growth at around 3 per cent, with Asia poised to reap major benefits. But soaring energy costs, unequal investment and growing pressure on young workers threaten to leave some economies behind.
Uzbekistan and Russia have a portfolio of more than 200 joint projects worth almost $6 billion, as the two countries continue to expand regional and business ties. The projects were discussed during the third meeting of the Council of Regions of Russia and Uzbekistan, held in Fergana, Uzbekistan.
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