The European Commission sees no immediate impact on the European Union's security of oil supply from the escalating conflict in the Middle East, it said in an email to EU governments, seen by Reuters on Monday (2 March).
"At this stage, we do not foresee an immediate oil SOS (security of supply) impact," the Commission email said.
The Commission is considering convening an ad-hoc meeting of its Oil Coordination Group later this week. Member states have been asked to share their assessments of oil supply security by the end of the day on Monday.
Romania has reported having enough fuel reserves for 30 days and stated that all measures are in place to prevent price surges.
Shipping companies are wary of attacks and unable to obtain insurance against conflicts as this crucial waterway handles around 20% of the world’s oil and gas.
Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy, said, "The most immediate and tangible development affecting oil markets is the effective halt of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, preventing 15 million barrels per day of crude oil from reaching markets. Unless de-escalation signals emerge swiftly, we expect a significant upward repricing of oil."
Military strikes by the United States and Israel on Iran continue, while Iran has responded with missile barrages.
President Donald Trump suggested to the UK's Daily Mail that the conflict could last four more weeks, with attacks continuing until U.S. objectives are met.
While the Strait of Hormuz has not been blocked, its strategic importance, handling around a fifth of the world’s seaborne oil trade and 20% of liquefied natural gas-means any disruption can significantly impact global energy markets.
A prolonged spike in oil prices could reignite inflationary pressures globally, acting as a tax on businesses and consumers and potentially dampening demand.
OPEC+ agreed to a modest oil output boost of 206,000 barrels per day for April, but much of that product still needs to leave the Middle East by tanker.
Alan Gelder, SVP of refining, chemicals and oil markets at Wood Mackenzie, said: "The nearest historical analogue is the Middle East oil embargo of the 1970s, which increased oil prices by 300% to around $12/bbl in 1974. That is only US$90/bbl in 2026 terms. Eclipsing this in today’s market, given significant supply losses, seems very achievable."
Brent crude LCOc1 was last up 9% at $78.9 a barrel, set for its biggest daily jump since 2020's COVID-19-related turbulence and just surpassing its surge after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Benchmark European gas prices surged 37.5% to one-year highs.
In the Middle East, the UAE and Kuwait temporarily closed their stock markets citing "exceptional circumstances".
The oil shock rippled through currency markets with the dollar a main beneficiary. The U.S. is a net energy exporter and Treasuries are still considered a liquid haven in times of stress, shoving the euro down 0.2% to $1.1787 EUR=EBS.
While the Japanese yen is often a safe harbour, the country imports all of its oil making the flows more two-way. The dollar added 0.3% to 156.44 yen JPY=EBS.
Bonds attracted fresh buying on Friday after UK mortgage lender MFS was placed into administration amid allegations of financial irregularities. Its collapse stoked wider credit fears, with well-known big banks among its lenders. MFS had borrowed £2 billion ($2.69 billion).
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Wall Street ended sharply lower on Tuesday as investors worried about artificial intelligence (AI) creating more competition for software makers, keeping them on edge ahead of quarterly reports from Alphabet and Amazon later this week.
U.S. stock markets finished mixed on Wednesday (28 January) as investors reacted calmly after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged, a decision that had been widely expected and largely priced in.
Wall Street closed sharply lower on Tuesday as global markets fell after U.S. President Donald Trump’s new tariff threats against Europe unsettled investors and revived fears of renewed volatility.
Wall Street closed higher on Tuesday, boosted by optimism over artificial intelligence (AI) and a strong rally in Moderna shares, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average approaching a record high.
Donald Trump has said the U.S. will resume bombing Iran if Tehran doesn't "behave," at the sidelines of the G7 summit in France. Earlier, the U.S. President criticised Israel for its tactics against Hezbollah, saying it was unnecessary to bomb entire apartment buildings to tackle militants.
A strong 6.7-magnitude earthquake struck Indonesia's Sulawesi island early Tuesday, killing at least one person and injuring four, according to emergency authorities.
U.S. President Donald Trump said a preliminary agreement to end the war in the Gulf has been signed by the U.S. and Iran, though details have yet to be made public and both countries said a permanent truce is yet to be negotiated.
Australia's weather bureau warned on Tuesday that an El Niño weather pattern has formed in the tropical Pacific and could intensify in the second half of 2026, becoming one of the strongest events recorded in seven decades.
Pakistan's heavy reliance on imported energy was laid bare by the U.S.-Iran conflict, which disrupted regional supplies, drove up costs and exposed vulnerabilities in the country's energy security. However, a proposed peace agreement now offers hope for economic relief.
French department store BHV and online fast-fashion retailer Shein have ended their partnership, seven months after the launch of a permanent Shein shop in Paris triggered controversy and widespread criticism.
China’s retail sales fell for the first time in more than three years in May, while urban investment contracted more than expected, signaling further weakness in the world’s second-largest economy.
Macao opened the 17th International Infrastructure Investment and Construction Forum on Thursday, with officials and industry leaders highlighting the role of green and digital technologies in strengthening global infrastructure connectivity.
At the start of 2026, something unusual happened in China's car market. BYD, the company that had spent years at the top of the domestic sales charts, was knocked off its perch by a rival.
Apple has unveiled a long-awaited upgrade to Siri, aiming to close the gap with technology rivals and emerging artificial intelligence firms in an increasingly competitive market.
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