Iran is pursuing a dual-track strategy in the Strait of Hormuz, balancing cooperation with South Korea while increasing military pressure, as tensions disrupt shipping and raise concerns over regional stability.
Speaking to AnewZ, Nourhan El-Bayaa, Professor at İstanbul Aydın University, said the international community should take both signals seriously, noting that Iran’s approach is not contradictory from its own perspective.
She explained that Iran is combining diplomatic openness with military escalation to increase the cost of confrontation. “They are showing that they are open for cooperation… to ensure safe navigation… but at the same time they are raising the voice of military escalation to raise the cost of the confrontation,” she said.
El-Bayaa added that this approach reflects both readiness for dialogue and an effort to control the dynamics of the conflict, particularly in its messaging towards the U.S. and Israel.
Limited shipping activity in the Strait of Hormuz may not indicate a failure of U.S. strategy. Instead, it could reflect a deliberate effort to sustain pressure without triggering immediate escalation.
“This degree of disruption may represent the intended outcome of this conflict,” El-Bayaa noted, explaining that even minor disruptions in such a critical waterway can create a prolonged sense of risk and instability.
She added that sustained instability may be more effective than a complete shutdown of the Strait, which could provoke rapid geopolitical consequences.
Iran’s outreach to South Korea also highlights its selective approach to international partnerships.
El-Bayaa noted that Tehran is engaging with countries such as South Korea, China and India, which it sees as viable partners during a challenging period.
“This reflects what we call a coordinated coercive strategy,” she said, adding that the U.S. is also working closely with allies including the United Kingdom, France and Italy to maintain maritime security in the region.
Looking ahead, El-Bayaa warned that the effects of the current tensions could be long-lasting. “Even if the conflict ends now, the instability it creates could last at least two years,” she said.
She also pointed to the complexity on both sides, noting Iran’s internal division between diplomatic and military institutions, and the U.S.’s shifting messaging.
“Both sides show strong resilience, making the situation complex,” she said, adding that negotiations are likely to remain prolonged.
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President Donald Trump called Iran’s response to a US war proposal “totally unacceptable” after Tehran sent its reply through mediator Pakistan, according to IRNA. Qatar’s al-Thani also warned Iran against using the Strait of Hormuz as “a pressure tool”.
Efforts to end the U.S.-Iran war appeared to stall as the two sides exchanged fire in and around the Strait of Hormuz. A reported CIA assessment suggested Tehran could withstand a U.S. naval blockade for months despite mounting sanctions and renewed Gulf attacks.
The U.S. and Iran exchanged fire in and around the Strait of Hormuz, though both sides signalled they did not want escalation. The clashes come as Washington awaits Tehran’s response to a proposed deal to end the war while leaving key disputes, such as Iran’s nuclear programme, unresolved for now.
Tensions between the U.S. and Iran remain far from a genuine ceasefire, as military posturing, sanctions and uncertainty over diplomacy continue to fuel fears of a broader regional confrontation.
Efforts to end the U.S.-Iran war appeared to stall as the two sides exchanged fire in and around the Strait of Hormuz. A reported CIA assessment suggested Tehran could withstand a U.S. naval blockade for months despite mounting sanctions and renewed Gulf attacks.
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President Donald Trump called Iran’s response to a US war proposal “totally unacceptable” after Tehran sent its reply through mediator Pakistan, according to IRNA. Qatar’s al-Thani also warned Iran against using the Strait of Hormuz as “a pressure tool”.
Efforts to end the U.S.-Iran war appeared to stall as the two sides exchanged fire in and around the Strait of Hormuz. A reported CIA assessment suggested Tehran could withstand a U.S. naval blockade for months despite mounting sanctions and renewed Gulf attacks.
The U.S. and Iran exchanged fire in and around the Strait of Hormuz, though both sides signalled they did not want escalation. The clashes come as Washington awaits Tehran’s response to a proposed deal to end the war while leaving key disputes, such as Iran’s nuclear programme, unresolved for now.
Tensions between the U.S. and Iran remain far from a genuine ceasefire, as military posturing, sanctions and uncertainty over diplomacy continue to fuel fears of a broader regional confrontation.
Iran confirmed on Friday its Armed Forces responded to, what Tehran is calling, the U.S. Navy’s violation of the ceasefire. It said Iranian ships and civilian areas were attacked near the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday evening.
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