Kazakhstan’s Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov said on 22 April that oil transit from Kazakhstan to Germany via Russia could drop to zero in May, citing unofficial information and pointing to possible technical constraints on the Russian side.
The disruption would affect shipments along the Atyrau–Samara route and onwards via the Druzhba pipeline to the refinery in Schwedt. Indicative figures for the second quarter also suggest zero deliveries, according to the minister.
“According to unofficial sources, this is true. For May, transit via Atyrau-Samara towards the Druzhba pipeline and further to the Schwedt refinery is at zero.
The Russian side, again according to unofficial sources, cites a lack of technical capacity to transport Kazakh oil. Most likely, this is linked to recent strikes on Russian infrastructure. This is my assumption,” Akkenzhenov said, stressing that the cause has not been officially confirmed.
He added that discussions are ongoing and that flows could resume once technical issues are resolved. “I have spoken with colleagues. As soon as the technical capability issue is addressed, transit of Kazakh oil will resume,” he said.
The Ministry of Energy said the situation surrounding this route is under close scrutiny, as Druzhba remains a key export corridor to Europe.
Earlier, industry sources cited by Reuters said Russia plans to halt Kazakh oil exports to Germany via Druzhba from 1 May, and that revised export schedules have already been sent to Kazakhstan and Germany.
Russian officials have not publicly confirmed the move, with Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov saying he was not aware of such a decision and would seek clarification.
Kazakhstan has been supplying oil to Germany via Druzhba since 2023. In 2025, shipments totalled 2.1 million tonnes, or around 43,000 barrels per day. In the first quarter of 2026, exports rose by 353,000 tonnes year on year to 730,000 tonnes, according to KazTransOil.
Overall, about 3 million tonnes out of Kazakhstan’s roughly 80 million tonnes of annual production are shipped via this route.
Kazakh crude accounts for around 20 to 30% of feedstock at the Schwedt refinery, which has a processing capacity of up to 12 million tonnes per year.
Authorities in the German state of Brandenburg have warned of possible consequences. While the refinery is not currently experiencing supply disruptions, officials say the situation could worsen in the coming weeks.
According to Reuters, Germany’s economy ministry has said supplies from Kazakhstan to Schwedt will be suspended from May and that it is assessing the potential impact.
The development comes as Europe continues to adjust its energy supply chains following the halt of Russian oil deliveries after the war in Ukraine.
Kazakhstan has supplied oil via the northern branch of Druzhba, which runs through Poland, although this route has faced periodic disruptions linked to attacks on infrastructure.
Poland’s pipeline operator PERN has said it is ready, if requested, to supply oil to non-Russian shareholders of the Schwedt refinery via the port of Gdańsk. The refinery’s shareholders include Rosneft, Shell and Eni.
Kazakhstan has already begun redirecting export volumes. “Naturally, we are redistributing all volumes through alternative routes. This includes the CPC pipeline, other directions and routes towards China.
No production cuts are planned. We have the capacity to reallocate these volumes. The situation on the CPC is stable, everything is operating normally,” Akkenzhenov said, referring to the Caspian Pipeline Consortium.
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