Kazakhstan has reported a sharp fall in oil production, with both output and exports declining in the first quarter of the year, according to government officials. The drop is now affecting the structure of economic growth, even as the country records 3% GDP growth.
The issue was discussed at a government meeting and presented by First Vice Minister of National Economy Azamat Amrin.
Amrin said Kazakhstan’s real GDP growth reached 3% in the first quarter. At the same time, he noted that the contribution of the oil sector to the economy has halved. He added that growth this year will be sustained without a positive contribution from the oil industry. In January to March, output in the mining sector fell by 11.4%, driven by a 19.8% decline in oil production and a 15.1% decrease in natural gas production.
Export figures have also weakened. In the first three months of the year, Kazakhstan exported 15.3 million tonnes of oil, which is 78.5% of the volume recorded in the same period in 2025. The annual export forecast remains at 76 million tonnes.
Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov said the decline is linked to conditions affecting key infrastructure and production sites, including the Caspian Pipeline Consortium system, the Tengiz field and other major upstream assets.
Around 80% of Kazakhstan’s oil exports pass through the CPC system, a pipeline network of about 1,500 kilometres running from western oil fields to the Black Sea, where crude is shipped to global markets.
Analysts note that the downturn has been shaped since autumn 2025 by a combination of technological and infrastructure factors, including maintenance works and restrictions at key oil production and transport facilities.
They estimate that since November 2025, Kazakhstan may have lost more than $2 billion in revenue due to disruptions in oil flows, lower export volumes and operational constraints in the system.
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