European airlines are facing their biggest challenge since the COVID-19 pandemic as the Iran war pushes up jet fuel prices and buffets travel through the Middle East, casting a shadow over the summer holiday season.
Carriers have been largely riding out the crisis with hedges that have tamed costs even as the price of jet fuel has risen nearly 84% since the start of the conflict on 28 February.
"There is a risk that we'll see rationing of fuel supply, particularly in Asia and Europe," Willie Walsh, head of the International Air Transport Association said.
Walsh said, however, that the situation was not yet as bad as the disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, which led to travel demand plummeting and hundreds of billions of dollars in losses for the aviation sector.
"I think COVID was on a completely different scale," Walsh added.
Jet fuel price hedges start to run out
The war has hit airline shares, with on-again-off-again peace talks to end the conflict and re-open the critical Strait of Hormuz to normalise global oil and gas flows in what is the worst energy crisis in decades.
Airlines are now warning about their hedges, which help lock in set prices - running out, with outlooks increasingly murky as people delay booking travel or make plans closer to home to avoid potential disruption and higher fares.
Sweden's Energy Minister Ebba Busch on Tuesday fired an "early warning" about potential jet fuel shortages despite good current supply, cautioning Swedes to think through travel plans.
European budget airline Wizz Air CEO József Váradi said on Monday that summer bookings were strong. However, easyJet and tour operator TUI announced declines in forward bookings and issued profit warnings in recent weeks.
Váradi, meanwhile, cautioned that even an end to the conflict would not quickly resolve high fuel prices.
"Even if the war is stopped in Iran, I don't think this is going to put the fuel price back to what it used to be two months ago," he told reporters in London.
Winners and losers
Gulf airlines have been the hardest hit, with data from Cirium Ascend showing that flights operated by Middle Eastern operators dropped 50% year-on-year in March, while bookings for Q2 and Q3 connecting via the main Gulf hubs are down 42.5%.
Global passenger capacity, however, remains up near 2% so far in 2026 versus 2025, it said, underscoring wider resilience.
The crisis has though dampened margins and sharpened the gap between weaker and stronger players.
Some have dodged the impact. Finland's flag carrier Finnair said the crisis had so far had a net positive impact with more demand for its Asian flights. Budget airline Norwegian on Tuesday brushed off jet fuel supply risks.
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The U.S.-Israeli war with Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have triggered the largest oil supply disruption ever recorded in terms of daily output losses. However, Reuters calculations show that at least one past crisis had a greater cumulative impact over time.
The U.S. Navy has forcibly intercepted and boarded the Iranian cargo ship TOUSKA in the Gulf of Oman after it attempted to breach the ongoing naval blockade. President Trump confirmed that the vessel was neutralised and seized by Marines following a direct strike on its engine room.
Some 20,000 seafarers remain stranded on around 2,000 ships in the Strait of Hormuz amid the ongoing Middle East conflict, in what has been described as an unprecedented situation in the post-Second World War era. The vessels include oil and gas tankers, cargo ships and six cruise liners.
Stock markets across Asia fell on Monday as escalating conflict involving Iran drove oil prices sharply higher, fuelling fears of inflation and a potential global recession, with investors reacting to disruption risks in the Strait of Hormuz and prolonged hostilities.
A Pentagon official provided the first official estimate of the cost of the U.S. war in Iran on Wednesday (29 April), telling lawmakers that $25 billion had so far been spent on the conflict, most of it on munitions. Earlier, Donald Trump said that the U.S. had "militarily defeated" Tehran.
Tensions between the United States and Iran remain high after a U.S. official said President Donald Trump was unhappy with a proposal from Tehran that does not deal with its nuclear programme. Washington is insisting that any talks must address Iran’s nuclear activities.
The decision by the United Arab Emirates to leave OPEC+ on 1 May has put renewed focus on one of the most influential groups in global energy - and how its decisions can shape oil prices worldwide.
Mexican special forces arrested Audias Flores, known as “El Jardinero”, a senior commander of the powerful Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG), during an operation in the western state of Nayarit, Security Minister Omar García Harfuch said on Monday (27 April).
The United Arab Emirates has said it's quitting OPEC from 1 May, dealing a major blow to the oil producers’ group and its de facto leader, Saudi Arabia, amid disruption caused by the Iran war.
President Donald Trump discussed how to mitigate the impact of a possible months-long U.S. blockade of Iran's ports with oil companies, a White House official said on Wednesday, as the U.S. renewed its calls for other nations to help open the Strait of Hormuz.
A senior adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader warned the U.S. port blockade would fail, saying Tehran has ways to bypass it and could turn to confrontation if pressure persists, even as an extended U.S.–Iran ceasefire remains in place after weeks of deadly fighting earlier this year across the region.
A Pentagon official provided the first official estimate of the cost of the U.S. war in Iran on Wednesday (29 April), telling lawmakers that $25 billion had so far been spent on the conflict, most of it on munitions. Earlier, Donald Trump said that the U.S. had "militarily defeated" Tehran.
Profits for worldwide energy company TotalEnergies have risen 41% in three months, as global energy supplies are disrupted after two months of war and oil prices have increased by 3%.
Efforts to end the Iran conflict were at an impasse on Tuesday with U.S. President Donald Trump unhappy with the latest proposal from Tehran, which he said had informed the U.S. it was in a "state of collapse" and figuring out its leadership situation.
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