Global weather forecasters predict a strong El Niño will develop in the second half of 2026, bringing hotter, drier conditions to much of Asia while increasing rainfall in parts of North and South America.
El Niño is a natural climate pattern marked by unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.
It develops when shifts in atmospheric pressure weaken or even reverse the normally steady easterly trade winds. This allows warm water, typically accumulated in the western Pacific, to move eastwards. The redistribution of heat disrupts normal ocean–atmosphere interactions and alters global weather patterns.
Several meteorological agencies are closely monitoring the potential emergence of El Niño conditions:
Forecasts suggest significant regional variations in climate impacts.
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology is predicting below-average rainfall in eastern cropping regions between May and August, the first half of the country’s growing season.
Weather models indicate rainfall below normal and temperatures above normal across Australia, Southeast Asia and India, said Chris Hyde, a meteorologist at weather intelligence firm Meteomatics, headquartered in Switzerland.
He added that conditions may be relatively favourable in the U.S. Midwest, although timing remains a key factor:
“Overall, I think it's going to be ideal growing conditions across the U.S. Midwest this year. We will have to watch the timing of El Niño, there could be some impacts to excessive moisture towards harvest.”
They are opposite phases of the same climate system in the tropical Pacific.
La Niña forms when trade winds strengthen, pushing more warm water towards the western Pacific and allowing colder water to upwell in the east, driving sea surface temperatures below normal.
La Niña often brings above-average rainfall to Australia and parts of Southeast Asia, but its impact on the Indian monsoon is variable rather than uniformly strengthening.
In the Americas, La Niña tends to lead to wetter conditions in parts of northern South America and drier conditions in the southern United States. Overall, the Americas broadly turn drier.
An El Niño occurs every three to five years on average, and a La Niña once every three to seven years, according to Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology.
El Niño events vary in severity and impact.
A strong event in 2015–2016 caused severe drought across Australia and Southeast Asia while weakening the Indian monsoon. It reduced output of grain, palm oil and sugar.
At the same time, excessive rain in parts of South America disrupted soybean and corn harvests.
The strongest El Niño on record was in 1997–1998. It caused drought in some parts of Asia and slashed rice production, although India received average rainfall. Flooding in the Americas damaged crops.
The most recent instance of a strong La Niña occurred from 2020 to 2023.
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