Global weather forecasters predict a strong El Niño will develop in the second half of 2026, bringing hotter, drier conditions to much of Asia while increasing rainfall in parts of North and South America.
The United Nations weather agency warned on Tuesday (3 June) that a moderate, or potentially strong, El Niño could push global temperatures higher and increase the likelihood of extreme weather in the months ahead.
In a video released address, Secretary General Antonio Guterres warned that impacts will "hit even harder, travel even farther, and cross borders with devastating speed".
“The science is clear: El Nino is arriving on our doorstep in the coming months with 90 percent certainty...the world must treat it as the urgent climate warning it is.” he added.
El Niño is a recurring climate pattern characterised by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), these events typically last between nine and 12 months.
The WMO said warming ocean waters were driving the development of El Niño and forecast above-average temperatures across most regions of the world between June and August. It added that the phenomenon is likely to persist until November.
The organisation also noted that uncertainty remains over the strength of this El Niño event, as forecasting models differ in their projections. However, officials stressed the importance of preparedness.
“We need to prepare for a potentially strong El Niño event – which will exacerbate drought and heavy rainfall and increase the risk of heatwaves both on land and in the ocean,” said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo.
Several meteorological agencies are closely monitoring the potential emergence of El Niño conditions:
Forecasts suggest significant regional variations in climate impacts.
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology is predicting below-average rainfall in eastern cropping regions between May and August, the first half of the country’s growing season.
Weather models indicate rainfall below normal and temperatures above normal across Australia, Southeast Asia and India, said Chris Hyde, a meteorologist at weather intelligence firm Meteomatics, headquartered in Switzerland.
He added that conditions may be relatively favourable in the U.S. Midwest, although timing remains a key factor:
“Overall, I think it's going to be ideal growing conditions across the U.S. Midwest this year. We will have to watch the timing of El Niño, there could be some impacts to excessive moisture towards harvest.”
They are opposite phases of the same climate system in the tropical Pacific.
La Niña forms when trade winds strengthen, pushing more warm water towards the western Pacific and allowing colder water to upwell in the east, driving sea surface temperatures below normal.
La Niña often brings above-average rainfall to Australia and parts of Southeast Asia, but its impact on the Indian monsoon is variable rather than uniformly strengthening.
In the Americas, La Niña tends to lead to wetter conditions in parts of northern South America and drier conditions in the southern United States. Overall, the Americas broadly turn drier.
An El Niño occurs every three to five years on average, and a La Niña once every three to seven years, according to Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology.
El Niño events vary in severity and impact.
A strong event in 2015–2016 caused severe drought across Australia and Southeast Asia while weakening the Indian monsoon. It reduced output of grain, palm oil and sugar.
At the same time, excessive rain in parts of South America disrupted soybean and corn harvests.
The strongest El Niño on record was in 1997–1998. It caused drought in some parts of Asia and slashed rice production, although India received average rainfall. Flooding in the Americas damaged crops.
The most recent instance of a strong La Niña occurred from 2020 to 2023.
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