Trump tariffs could cut U.S. deficit by $4 trillion

Donald Trump meets with Ukrainian President at the White House, 18 August, 2025.
Reuters

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) said Friday that continued global tariff hikes imposed by President Donald Trump could shrink the national deficit by $4 trillion over the next ten years.

According to the nonpartisan agency, higher tariff revenues could cut primary deficits by $3.3 trillion and reduce federal interest payments by $0.7 trillion.

However, the current top tariff rates may change as trade negotiations and international legal challenges continue. The additional revenue could offset deficit growth triggered by the recent Republican tax-cut and spending bill, which CBO estimates would add $3.4 trillion to the deficit over the next decade.

The U.S. federal debt currently stands at $37.18 trillion, continuing to rise under both Republican and Democratic administrations as Congress authorises more spending than revenue. Lawmakers face a government funding deadline at the end of September, or risk a shutdown.

The latest estimate is higher than CBO’s June projection, which forecast a $2.5 trillion reduction in primary deficits and a $500 billion cut in interest outlays.

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