Journalist and International Affairs Commentator, Tom Gross, joined AnewZ from Tel Aviv to tell us why he thinks the attack happened now and whether this could mark the beginning of the end for the Iranian leadership.

Gross said there were “two interests” behind the strikes. The first, he said, is “a defensive, a pre-emptive defensive attack by Israel and the U.S. to prevent the Iranians from being in a position where they pose a really serious threat, eventually a nuclear threat, to Israel, the U.S., and European allies”.

The second, he said, is that Trump is “honouring his promise to the Iranian people in January”, when the U.S. president said that “if you protest against the regime, we’ll have your back”. Gross added that Trump “essentially said, America will be with you”.

• 'Take over your government', Trump urges Iranians: All the latest news on the Iran strikes

Key question

The central question now, Gross told AnewZ, is “what will the Iranian people do?”

Gross said the issue is whether this is “just a military strike” or “some kind of plan for the Iranian protesters to attempt to seize power” and prompt a leadership change.

Gross outlined three main possibilities. The first, he said, would be a short operation lasting only “a few hours”, after which Washington “will pose again the question to the Iranian regime, this is your chance, negotiate properly”, telling Tehran to address its nuclear and missile programmes before the campaign stops.

• Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal: What you need to know

The second possibility is a longer effort, “until the regime in Iran crumbles”, depending on Tehran’s reaction and internal stability. While the third possibility, which Gross compared to a Venezuela-style shift, involves someone inside Iran’s power structure moving to redirect the country away from confrontation. He said the U.S. could accept such a figure if it changed course, noting Trump would “probably be OK with that”.

He said “there will not be any ground troops” and that the outcome “will be up to the Iranian people”. Gross added that “up to one-third of American naval forces are essentially surrounding Iran”, underscoring the pressure behind these scenarios.

Tags

Iran Tehran Middle East Israel United States Donald Trump Benjamin Netanyahu Geopolitics Conflict