Iran’s leadership is facing its most acute challenge in years as violent unrest driven by economic hardship coincides with renewed military warnings from the United States and Israel.
The Islamic Republic is grappling with what officials privately describe as a ‘survival mode’ moment: a population pushed towards open revolt by financial collapse, and growing international pressure that raises the prospect of fresh military confrontation.
For decades, Iran’s rulers have relied on force to suppress dissent. However, analysts say the current crisis presents a dual threat that coercion alone cannot resolve-deepening economic misery at home and escalating geopolitical risks abroad.
The latest wave of protests has convulsed the country for more than a week.
While smaller than the 2022 "Woman, Life, Freedom" uprising or the nationwide fuel price protests of 2019, the violence and its timing have unsettled the clerical establishment.
Tensions intensified on Friday when U.S. President Donald Trump warned of direct intervention if Iranian authorities killed ‘peaceful protesters’.
"We are locked and loaded and ready to go," he wrote in a social media post.
Israel has also voiced public support for demonstrators. Gila Gamliel, Israel’s minister of innovation, science and technology, said in a video message: "Israel is with you, and we support you in every way possible."
Iranian officials were further rattled by events in Venezuela, where the U.S. military launched an intervention that resulted in the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, a close ally of Tehran.
At a subsequent press conference, President Trump said Washington would oversee Venezuela’s political transition, while U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned other adversarial states to ‘take note’.
Ali Gholhaki, a hard-line political commentator in Iran, said the collapse of allied governments offered a stark warning.
"The lesson for Iran is that we must be extremely careful that the same scenario does not happen here," he said. "When security forces and the military struggle to survive economically, the defence lines collapse."
Following the U.S. warnings, Iran’s Supreme National Security Council held an emergency late-night meeting, according to officials familiar with the discussions.
They said the council debated how to contain unrest using limited force to avoid provoking a U.S. response, while also preparing for possible air strikes.
President Masoud Pezeshkian has acknowledged the scale of the challenge. In his first address since the unrest began, he said: "Any policy in society that is unjust is doomed to fail. We must listen to the people."
Efforts to stabilise the economy, including replacing the central bank governor, have failed to halt the collapse of the national currency. Analysts say only the revival of the nuclear deal and the lifting of sanctions could ease the crisis, a move strongly opposed by hardliners within the establishment.
Iran’s economy has been under severe strain since the U.S. withdrawal from the nuclear agreement in 2018. Conditions worsened further after the reimposition of UN ‘snapback’ sanctions in September.
The risk of renewed conflict with Israel remains high.
Officials fear domestic instability could present an opportunity for further strikes, following Israeli attacks in June 2025 that triggered a brief regional conflict and damaged Iran’s nuclear infrastructure.
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has taken a defiant tone, declaring that "rioters must be put in their place" while blaming foreign powers for the currency crisis. He acknowledged, however, that bazaar merchants had legitimate grievances over rising prices.
Protests that began with shop closures have escalated into clashes in several provinces. State-affiliated Fars News Agency reported what it described as "organised cells" using heavy weapons in western regions, including Ilam.
Videos circulating online show masked demonstrators firing weapons into the air and chanting slogans against the leadership.
In Tehran, participation remains uneven. While the central bazaar and university campuses have seen unrest, wealthier northern districts have continued largely unaffected.
A joint statement from 17 pro-democracy activists, including Nobel Peace Prize laureate Narges Mohammadi, urged security forces to stand aside.
‘"The only path to saving Iran is a transition away from the Islamic Republic," it said. "This demand is neither temporary nor suppressible."
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Iranian activist and Nobel Peace Prize winner Narges Mohammadi was sentenced to a new prison term of 7-1/2 years, a group supporting her said on Sunday (8 February).
U.S., Israeli and European leaders exploited Iran’s economic problems and encouraged unrest during recent nationwide protests, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said on Saturday (31 January).
The head of Hezbollah has issued a statement calling for mobilisation in support of Iran, using religious language and references to armed struggle that have raised concern among regional observers.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry has strongly rejected a U.S. magazine report on the death toll during January unrest. Nationwide protests erupted in response to soaring inflation and a national currency crisis.
U.S. Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker said China has the power to bring an end to Russia’s war in Ukraine, arguing that Beijing is enabling Moscow’s military campaign.
American figure skating star Ilia Malinin endured a dramatic collapse in the men’s free skate on Friday night, falling twice and tumbling out of medal contention at the Milan Cortina Winter Olympics as Kazakhstan’s Mikhail Shaidorov surged to a surprise gold medal.
Thousands of fans packed River Plate’s Monumental Stadium in Buenos Aires on Friday for the first of three sold-out concerts by Puerto Rican reggaeton star Bad Bunny, as part of his “Debí Tirar Más Fotos” World Tour.
New Zealand declared a state of emergency in Otorohanga on Saturday (14 February) after torrential rain caused severe flooding, power outages and evacuations.
Austria’s Janine Flock won the gold medal in the women’s skeleton event at the Milano-Cortina 2026 Winter Olympics on Saturday.
Iran’s Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Larijani said the United States could evaluate its own interests separately from those of Israel in ongoing negotiations between Tehran and Washington.
Four people were killed on Sunday evening in an Israeli drone strike targeting a vehicle in eastern Lebanon near the Lebanese-Syrian border, Lebanon’s official National News Agency (NNA) reported.
Israel’s cabinet on Sunday approved measures aimed at expanding state oversight of land in the occupied West Bank and facilitating land purchases by settlers, a move Palestinian officials described as a 'de-facto annexation.'
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Sunday that member states of the newly formed Board of Peace will announce pledges exceeding $5 billion for Gaza’s reconstruction during a gathering in Washington this week.
Iran is pursuing a nuclear agreement with the U.S. that delivers economic benefits for both sides, an Iranian diplomat was reported as saying on Sunday (15 February), days before a second round of talks between Tehran and Washington.
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