Iran’s leadership is facing its most acute challenge in years as violent unrest driven by economic hardship coincides with renewed military warnings from the United States and Israel.
The Islamic Republic is grappling with what officials privately describe as a ‘survival mode’ moment: a population pushed towards open revolt by financial collapse, and growing international pressure that raises the prospect of fresh military confrontation.
For decades, Iran’s rulers have relied on force to suppress dissent. However, analysts say the current crisis presents a dual threat that coercion alone cannot resolve-deepening economic misery at home and escalating geopolitical risks abroad.
The latest wave of protests has convulsed the country for more than a week.
While smaller than the 2022 "Woman, Life, Freedom" uprising or the nationwide fuel price protests of 2019, the violence and its timing have unsettled the clerical establishment.
Tensions intensified on Friday when U.S. President Donald Trump warned of direct intervention if Iranian authorities killed ‘peaceful protesters’.
"We are locked and loaded and ready to go," he wrote in a social media post.
Israel has also voiced public support for demonstrators. Gila Gamliel, Israel’s minister of innovation, science and technology, said in a video message: "Israel is with you, and we support you in every way possible."
Iranian officials were further rattled by events in Venezuela, where the U.S. military launched an intervention that resulted in the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, a close ally of Tehran.
At a subsequent press conference, President Trump said Washington would oversee Venezuela’s political transition, while U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned other adversarial states to ‘take note’.
Ali Gholhaki, a hard-line political commentator in Iran, said the collapse of allied governments offered a stark warning.
"The lesson for Iran is that we must be extremely careful that the same scenario does not happen here," he said. "When security forces and the military struggle to survive economically, the defence lines collapse."
Following the U.S. warnings, Iran’s Supreme National Security Council held an emergency late-night meeting, according to officials familiar with the discussions.
They said the council debated how to contain unrest using limited force to avoid provoking a U.S. response, while also preparing for possible air strikes.
President Masoud Pezeshkian has acknowledged the scale of the challenge. In his first address since the unrest began, he said: "Any policy in society that is unjust is doomed to fail. We must listen to the people."
Efforts to stabilise the economy, including replacing the central bank governor, have failed to halt the collapse of the national currency. Analysts say only the revival of the nuclear deal and the lifting of sanctions could ease the crisis, a move strongly opposed by hardliners within the establishment.
Iran’s economy has been under severe strain since the U.S. withdrawal from the nuclear agreement in 2018. Conditions worsened further after the reimposition of UN ‘snapback’ sanctions in September.
The risk of renewed conflict with Israel remains high.
Officials fear domestic instability could present an opportunity for further strikes, following Israeli attacks in June 2025 that triggered a brief regional conflict and damaged Iran’s nuclear infrastructure.
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has taken a defiant tone, declaring that "rioters must be put in their place" while blaming foreign powers for the currency crisis. He acknowledged, however, that bazaar merchants had legitimate grievances over rising prices.
Protests that began with shop closures have escalated into clashes in several provinces. State-affiliated Fars News Agency reported what it described as "organised cells" using heavy weapons in western regions, including Ilam.
Videos circulating online show masked demonstrators firing weapons into the air and chanting slogans against the leadership.
In Tehran, participation remains uneven. While the central bazaar and university campuses have seen unrest, wealthier northern districts have continued largely unaffected.
A joint statement from 17 pro-democracy activists, including Nobel Peace Prize laureate Narges Mohammadi, urged security forces to stand aside.
‘"The only path to saving Iran is a transition away from the Islamic Republic," it said. "This demand is neither temporary nor suppressible."
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Iranian activist and Nobel Peace Prize winner Narges Mohammadi was sentenced to a new prison term of 7-1/2 years, a group supporting her said on Sunday (8 February).
U.S., Israeli and European leaders exploited Iran’s economic problems and encouraged unrest during recent nationwide protests, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said on Saturday (31 January).
The head of Hezbollah has issued a statement calling for mobilisation in support of Iran, using religious language and references to armed struggle that have raised concern among regional observers.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry has strongly rejected a U.S. magazine report on the death toll during January unrest. Nationwide protests erupted in response to soaring inflation and a national currency crisis.
Trump says the United States "don’t need people that join wars after we’ve already won," targeting his criticism at UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Israel continues to fire missles at strategic sites in Iran and Gulf regions report more strikes from Iran.
Global oil prices continue to rise, currently surpassing $119 a barrel this Monday, an almost four year high following fresh U.S.-Israeli strikes targeting oil depots. Stock markets shares slumped on fears the conflict with Iran could disrupt shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.
Mojtaba Khamenei, son of the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is a hardline cleric with strong backing from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. His rise signals continuity in Tehran's anti-Western policies.
Iran named Mojtaba Khamenei to succeed his father Ali Khamenei as supreme leader on Monday (9 March), signaling that hardliners remain firmly in charge, as the week-old U.S.-Israeli war with Iran pushed oil above $100 a barrel.
Entry and exit across the state border between Azerbaijan and Iran for all types of cargo vehicles, including those in transit, will resume on 9 March, according to a statement by the Cabinet of Ministers of Azerbaijan.
Kyrgyzstan recorded the largest increase in women’s representation in parliament worldwide in 2025, according to a new report by the Inter-Parliamentary Union.
Türkiye’s official anti-disinformation agency has issued a statement refuting what it described as online “disinformation” and reiterating the strength of relations between Türkiye and Azerbaijan.
China has urged Afghanistan and Pakistan to resolve their dispute through dialogue after Chinese envoy Yue Xiaoyong met Afghan Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi, as fighting between the two neighbours entered its eleventh day.
Almost 2,000 people have been evacuated from Iran via Azerbaijan since conflict erupted in the Middle East.
Kazakhstan has evacuated more than 7,300 citizens from the Middle East since regional tensions escalated, using both air and land routes to bring nationals home while closely monitoring political developments and potential economic effects linked to rising oil prices.
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