Iran’s leadership is facing its most acute challenge in years as violent unrest driven by economic hardship coincides with renewed military warnings from the United States and Israel.
The Islamic Republic is grappling with what officials privately describe as a ‘survival mode’ moment: a population pushed towards open revolt by financial collapse, and growing international pressure that raises the prospect of fresh military confrontation.
For decades, Iran’s rulers have relied on force to suppress dissent. However, analysts say the current crisis presents a dual threat that coercion alone cannot resolve-deepening economic misery at home and escalating geopolitical risks abroad.
The latest wave of protests has convulsed the country for more than a week.
While smaller than the 2022 "Woman, Life, Freedom" uprising or the nationwide fuel price protests of 2019, the violence and its timing have unsettled the clerical establishment.
Tensions intensified on Friday when U.S. President Donald Trump warned of direct intervention if Iranian authorities killed ‘peaceful protesters’.
"We are locked and loaded and ready to go," he wrote in a social media post.
Israel has also voiced public support for demonstrators. Gila Gamliel, Israel’s minister of innovation, science and technology, said in a video message: "Israel is with you, and we support you in every way possible."
Iranian officials were further rattled by events in Venezuela, where the U.S. military launched an intervention that resulted in the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, a close ally of Tehran.
At a subsequent press conference, President Trump said Washington would oversee Venezuela’s political transition, while U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned other adversarial states to ‘take note’.
Ali Gholhaki, a hard-line political commentator in Iran, said the collapse of allied governments offered a stark warning.
"The lesson for Iran is that we must be extremely careful that the same scenario does not happen here," he said. "When security forces and the military struggle to survive economically, the defence lines collapse."
Following the U.S. warnings, Iran’s Supreme National Security Council held an emergency late-night meeting, according to officials familiar with the discussions.
They said the council debated how to contain unrest using limited force to avoid provoking a U.S. response, while also preparing for possible air strikes.
President Masoud Pezeshkian has acknowledged the scale of the challenge. In his first address since the unrest began, he said: "Any policy in society that is unjust is doomed to fail. We must listen to the people."
Efforts to stabilise the economy, including replacing the central bank governor, have failed to halt the collapse of the national currency. Analysts say only the revival of the nuclear deal and the lifting of sanctions could ease the crisis, a move strongly opposed by hardliners within the establishment.
Iran’s economy has been under severe strain since the U.S. withdrawal from the nuclear agreement in 2018. Conditions worsened further after the reimposition of UN ‘snapback’ sanctions in September.
The risk of renewed conflict with Israel remains high.
Officials fear domestic instability could present an opportunity for further strikes, following Israeli attacks in June 2025 that triggered a brief regional conflict and damaged Iran’s nuclear infrastructure.
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has taken a defiant tone, declaring that "rioters must be put in their place" while blaming foreign powers for the currency crisis. He acknowledged, however, that bazaar merchants had legitimate grievances over rising prices.
Protests that began with shop closures have escalated into clashes in several provinces. State-affiliated Fars News Agency reported what it described as "organised cells" using heavy weapons in western regions, including Ilam.
Videos circulating online show masked demonstrators firing weapons into the air and chanting slogans against the leadership.
In Tehran, participation remains uneven. While the central bazaar and university campuses have seen unrest, wealthier northern districts have continued largely unaffected.
A joint statement from 17 pro-democracy activists, including Nobel Peace Prize laureate Narges Mohammadi, urged security forces to stand aside.
‘"The only path to saving Iran is a transition away from the Islamic Republic," it said. "This demand is neither temporary nor suppressible."
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The head of Hezbollah has issued a statement calling for mobilisation in support of Iran, using religious language and references to armed struggle that have raised concern among regional observers.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry has strongly rejected a U.S. magazine report on the death toll during January unrest. Nationwide protests erupted in response to soaring inflation and a national currency crisis.
Tasnim News Agency says more than 150 people identified by Iranian authorities as organisers and key actors in recent unrest in Yazd have been arrested.
President Donald Trump said on Thursday that the United States has an "armada" heading toward Iran but hoped he would not have to use it, as he renewed warnings to Tehran against killing protesters or restarting its nuclear programme.
The UN Human Rights Council has condemned Iran for rights abuses and ordered an expanded investigation into a crackdown on anti-government protests that killed thousands, as Tehran warned any military attack would be treated as an all-out war.
Minnesota Governor Tim Walz has activated the state’s National Guard following the fatal shooting of a U.S. citizen in Minneapolis, an incident that has triggered protests and intensified tensions between state and federal authorities.
Spain has faced a string of railway accidents in one week, including one of Europe’s deadliest in recent years, raising questions about whether maintenance investment is keeping pace with soaring passenger demand on the world’s largest high-speed rail network.
Venezuela’s interim president Delcy Rodriguez said on Sunday the country should not fear pursuing energy ties with the United States, as Caracas seeks to expand oil and gas production and attract foreign investment.
Around 1,700 apartment blocks in Kyiv remain without heating after a Russian missile and drone attack earlier this week, Mayor Vitalii Klitschko said on Sunday. Russia has intensified strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure since its invasion in 2022.
“What we've seen in the last few years is an expansion of all relations between Azerbaijan and Israel,” said Maurice Hirsch, from the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs. His remarks came as Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar visited Baku, Azerbaijan on 26 January.
Russia says it sees no preconditions for resuming political dialogue with Georgia. However, it has simultaneously praised the Georgian government, expanded economic ties, and openly questioned Georgia’s Western-looking aspirations.
The United Nations has renewed calls for the immediate lifting of restrictions on Afghan women’s access to education, work and public life, after a three-day visit to Kabul by its senior political affairs official.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry has strongly rejected a U.S. magazine report on the death toll during January unrest. Nationwide protests erupted in response to soaring inflation and a national currency crisis.
The Turkish Disaster and Emergency Management Authority (AFAD) and the Turkish Red Crescent (Kızılay) on Sunday dispatched 11 trucks carrying humanitarian aid.
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