Central Asia faces mounting pressure as water diplomacy takes centre stage

Tajikistan is hosting the Fourth International Conference on the International Decade for Action “Water for Sustainable Development” in Dushanbe from 25 to 28 May, bringing together more than 2,500 participants from governments, international organisations and financial institutions.

The conference is focused on water security, glacier preservation and climate change at a time when environmental pressures are increasingly shaping regional stability across Central Asia. Tajikistan has positioned itself as a leading voice in global water diplomacy, having initiated 14 United Nations resolutions related to water resources. The gathering is also expected to help shape preparations for the 2026 United Nations Water Conference in Abu Dhabi.

Against this backdrop, water diplomacy is increasingly emerging as a defining regional issue in Central Asia, where shared river systems, climate pressures and competing development needs are adding new layers of complexity to already sensitive geopolitical dynamics.

The topic has gained renewed attention following calls by Tajikistan’s President Emomali Rahmon for stronger regional cooperation on water management, as countries across the region face growing environmental stress linked to shrinking water resources, glacier loss and changing river flows.

Central Asia sits at the heart of one of the world’s most interconnected water systems, where major rivers such as the Amu Darya and Syr Darya cross multiple borders and underpin agriculture, energy production and economic stability. At the same time, climate change is accelerating glacial retreat in upstream countries, while downstream regions face increasing pressure from water scarcity and infrastructure demands.

• More than 1,300 glaciers lost in Tajikistan, raising Central Asia water concerns

Shared rivers under growing strain

AnewZ's Bakhtiyar Hasanov spoke with Professor Larissa Naylor, Professor of Geomorphology and Environmental Geography, about the importance of water diplomacy in Central Asia today.

Professor Naylor said water diplomacy is a critical issue globally, particularly in regions where multiple countries depend on shared water systems across interconnected basins.

“Water diplomacy is a key issue worldwide but particularly in a region like the Caspian sea when so many different countries are on its border and there are also large rivers such as the Volga River which drain into the Caspian sea and are very much threatened by changing conditions.”

She explained that rising temperatures are directly altering hydrological cycles, affecting both river flow and overall water availability across the region.

“The runoff changes in the spring but hotter temperatures mean the river itself is evaporating and so there is less water coming into the Caspian Sea.”

Human pressure and structural water stress

Beyond climate change, Professor Naylor also highlighted the growing impact of human activity on already stressed water systems, including abstraction, dam construction and diversion of river flows.

“There is also a human abstraction of water, so we take water out of our river systems, we dam river systems and that limits the amount of water that is entering The Caspian Sea in this region.”

These combined pressures, she noted, are unfolding in a region already shaped by complex political relationships, where environmental stress risks becoming a multiplier of existing tensions.

Geopolitical risks intensify

Her remarks come as governments across Central Asia step up efforts to coordinate water management, improve monitoring systems and strengthen regional frameworks for cooperation. Initiatives range from glacier monitoring and data-sharing platforms to broader discussions on transboundary water governance.

• Japan and UNDP launch $3 million Caspian project in Kazakhstan

A strategic turning point for the region

Taken together, these developments underline how water is no longer only an environmental concern in Central Asia, but an increasingly strategic issue shaping diplomacy, security and long-term economic planning. As climate change accelerates and demand for water intensifies, the need for coordinated regional water diplomacy is becoming more urgent than ever.

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News water diplomacy Central Asia Climate Security