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Whoever was responsible for scheduling the sessions at the recently held World Economic Forum in Davos showed a keen sense of geopolitical choreography.
It came as a surprise to many when Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, Armenian President Vahagn Khachaturyan, and Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić appeared together at a Euronews panel to discuss the situation in the South Caucasus and the wider Eurasian region last week.
At first glance, Serbia - a landlocked country in Southeast Europe - seems to share little in common with Azerbaijan and Armenia. Yet a closer look reveals a set of political, historical, and societal parallels that link the Balkan state with the two South Caucasus nations.
Indeed, on the surface, Serbian leader Aleksandar Vučić felt like an odd presence in the discussion, as Serbia belongs neither to the South Caucasus nor to Eurasia. Unlike Azerbaijan and Armenia, Serbia is a European Union candidate state, although with very little chance of joining the bloc anytime soon, if at all. Also, unlike the two South Caucasus nations, it was never part of the Soviet Union, nor is it a member of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). So what connects Belgrade with Baku and Yerevan?
It is not a secret that, until 2020, Serbia supplied weapons to both Azerbaijan and Armenia. But after the arms sales to Yerevan sparked diplomatic tension with Baku - Serbia’s strategic partner since 2013 - Belgrade had to halt its military cooperation with Armenia. Ever since, Serbia and Azerbaijan have developed a robust military-technical partnership. This includes regular joint exercises, as well as a 2024 contract for Baku to purchase 48 Serbian-made NORA B-52 155mm self-propelled howitzers.
Meanwhile, the energy-rich South Caucasus nation is supplying Serbia with oil and natural gas, helping Belgrade diversify its energy sources. Facing Western pressure to reduce dependence on Russian energy, Serbia increasingly counts on Azerbaijan to meet its growing energy needs. That is why, in the coming years, energy and economic ties between Belgrade and Baku are expected to grow.
With Armenia, Serbia records relatively modest trade flows, roughly estimated at around $12–15 million in total trade turnover. In comparison, in 2024, the volume of trade operations between Azerbaijan and Serbia amounted to $190.3 million. Despite that, Belgrade and Yerevan seek to improve relations they claim are based on “traditional friendship and cultural and historical closeness.”
Historically, Serbia and Armenia share similar geopolitical experiences. Both nations long viewed Russia as an ally, yet in the end, Moscow repeatedly turned its back on both of them. More importantly, both Serbia and Armenia are defeated countries. In 1999, Serbia suffered a defeat at the hands of NATO, which resulted in the withdrawal of its military and police forces from Kosovo, a Serbian southern province that unilaterally declared independence in 2008. Notably, neither Baku nor Yerevan has recognised Kosovo - one of the few areas where their foreign policies align.
Armenia suffered a defeat in 2020 during the 44-day war, while in 2023 Azerbaijan cemented its victory by fully resolving the Karabakh conflict in its favour. The Armenian leadership is now making moves similar to those of Serbia after the end of the Yugoslav wars - normalising relations with its former archenemies.
When it comes to domestic policy and systems of government, Serbia is more similar to Armenia than to Azerbaijan, as both nations have a parliamentary system, whereas Azerbaijan is a unitary republic with a presidential form of government. In practice, however, while the presidencies in both Armenia and Serbia are largely ceremonial, Vučić nevertheless seeks to act like a strong presidential leader, similar to Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, whom he praised as “one of the great, brilliant leaders” at the Davos summit.
“It is very rare to see such a leader in the current era,” Vučić noted, underscoring Aliyev’s role in shaping regional achievements through long-term planning and decisive governance.
In 2022, during the Azerbaijani leader’s visit to Belgrade, Vučić said that Aliyev had become “the most popular president in Europe.” He also added that now “everyone has time for him because they need Azerbaijani natural gas.”
“I'm a little jealous of him. They only call me about Kosovo, when someone needs to hit me on the head,” Vučić stressed.
His statement perfectly illustrates that Azerbaijan enjoys a far stronger international position than Serbia. Despite that, Baku and Belgrade share significant similarities. Both nations stand firmly on the principle of territorial integrity in a world where it is rather questionable whether international law still holds. Also, both countries have developed robust economic ties with China, while carefully managing relations with the West. Moreover, both Belgrade and Baku have established close military ties with Israel, while preserving friendly relations with the Arab world.
During the Davos panel discussion, Vučić stressed the need for Serbia, Azerbaijan, and Armenia to find common ground and work together. He highlighted that the countries face a choice “between aligning with major geopolitical blocs or defending their sovereignty and independence.” He also suggested that the people of Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Serbia are likely to prioritise the latter - safeguarding national interests while remaining open to cooperation with all partners.
In other words, Vučić effectively advocates a balanced approach amid growing geopolitical turbulences, especially between the European Union and the United States. Still, achieving this goal will be very difficult, as global powers are likely to increase their competition for influence over the three nations.
Thus, Serbia, Azerbaijan, and Armenia are expected to face the challenge of balancing national interests with the realities of an increasingly polarised world. And this will be yet another similarity among them.
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