The European Commission sees no immediate impact on the European Union's security of oil supply from the escalating conflict in the Middle East, it said in an email to EU governments, seen by Reuters on Monday (2 March).
"At this stage, we do not foresee an immediate oil SOS (security of supply) impact," the Commission email said.
The Commission is considering convening an ad-hoc meeting of its Oil Coordination Group later this week. Member states have been asked to share their assessments of oil supply security by the end of the day on Monday.
Romania has reported having enough fuel reserves for 30 days and stated that all measures are in place to prevent price surges.
Shipping companies are wary of attacks and unable to obtain insurance against conflicts as this crucial waterway handles around 20% of the world’s oil and gas.
Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy, said, "The most immediate and tangible development affecting oil markets is the effective halt of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, preventing 15 million barrels per day of crude oil from reaching markets. Unless de-escalation signals emerge swiftly, we expect a significant upward repricing of oil."
Military strikes by the United States and Israel on Iran continue, while Iran has responded with missile barrages.
President Donald Trump suggested to the UK's Daily Mail that the conflict could last four more weeks, with attacks continuing until U.S. objectives are met.
While the Strait of Hormuz has not been blocked, its strategic importance, handling around a fifth of the world’s seaborne oil trade and 20% of liquefied natural gas-means any disruption can significantly impact global energy markets.
A prolonged spike in oil prices could reignite inflationary pressures globally, acting as a tax on businesses and consumers and potentially dampening demand.
OPEC+ agreed to a modest oil output boost of 206,000 barrels per day for April, but much of that product still needs to leave the Middle East by tanker.
Alan Gelder, SVP of refining, chemicals and oil markets at Wood Mackenzie, said: "The nearest historical analogue is the Middle East oil embargo of the 1970s, which increased oil prices by 300% to around $12/bbl in 1974. That is only US$90/bbl in 2026 terms. Eclipsing this in today’s market, given significant supply losses, seems very achievable."
Brent crude LCOc1 was last up 9% at $78.9 a barrel, set for its biggest daily jump since 2020's COVID-19-related turbulence and just surpassing its surge after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Benchmark European gas prices surged 37.5% to one-year highs.
In the Middle East, the UAE and Kuwait temporarily closed their stock markets citing "exceptional circumstances".
The oil shock rippled through currency markets with the dollar a main beneficiary. The U.S. is a net energy exporter and Treasuries are still considered a liquid haven in times of stress, shoving the euro down 0.2% to $1.1787 EUR=EBS.
While the Japanese yen is often a safe harbour, the country imports all of its oil making the flows more two-way. The dollar added 0.3% to 156.44 yen JPY=EBS.
Bonds attracted fresh buying on Friday after UK mortgage lender MFS was placed into administration amid allegations of financial irregularities. Its collapse stoked wider credit fears, with well-known big banks among its lenders. MFS had borrowed £2 billion ($2.69 billion).
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Wall Street ended sharply lower on Tuesday as investors worried about artificial intelligence (AI) creating more competition for software makers, keeping them on edge ahead of quarterly reports from Alphabet and Amazon later this week.
U.S. stock markets finished mixed on Wednesday (28 January) as investors reacted calmly after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged, a decision that had been widely expected and largely priced in.
Wall Street closed sharply lower on Tuesday as global markets fell after U.S. President Donald Trump’s new tariff threats against Europe unsettled investors and revived fears of renewed volatility.
Wall Street closed higher on Tuesday, boosted by optimism over artificial intelligence (AI) and a strong rally in Moderna shares, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average approaching a record high.
Cuba and the United States have been at odds for more than six decades, with tensions rooted in the 1959 revolution that transformed the island’s political and economic system. Renewed focus on relations comes as Donald Trump’s rhetoric intensifies and conditions on the island worsen.
The four astronauts selected for NASA’s Artemis II mission have arrived in Florida, entering the final phase of preparations for the first crewed journey towards the Moon in more than five decades
NASA is aiming to launch its Artemis 2 mission on Wednesday (1 April), sending astronauts on a 10-day journey around the Moon, officials confirmed. According to the Space Administration, the launch window is due to open at 23:24 GMT, with additional opportunities to 6 April if delays occur.
Iranian Military Spokesman Lieutenant Colonel Ibrahim Zulfiqari has warned that American soldiers will become 'food for sharks' if U.S. President Donald Trump launches ground attacks against Iran. The threat comes after the U.S. military said it was deploying thousands of Marines to the region.
Weekend strikes hit Iran’s Natanz nuclear site and missile facilities near Isfahan, as Tehran responded with missiles and drones targeting Tel Aviv, Haifa Bay, and Gulf assets. With U.S. reinforcements deployed and Hormuz tensions rising, the region faces a sharply escalated crisis.
Petrol price spikes triggered by the war in Iran are boosting used electric vehicle sales across Europe, online car platforms told Reuters, in an early sign that pain at the pump is pushing consumers away from combustion engines.
Meta Platforms is increasing compensation for top executives, including its first-ever offer of stock options, as it tries to fend off competition in the artificial intelligence (AI) race and incentivize leaders to stay with the company for several years.
The French government’s bid to suspend the marketplace of Chinese online retailer Shein in the country has been overruled by a Paris Court of Appeal.
The prevailing security situation in the region has done little to deter entrepreneurs from the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) who continue to view Dubai as a premier and safe location for business.
China has raised the retail prices of petrol and diesel after global oil prices climbed sharply. The country’s top economic planning body, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), announced the move after reviewing international oil market trends.
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