Russia is bracing for potential turmoil in global oil markets after U.S. President Donald Trump ordered a military operation that led to the capture of Venezuela’s long-time leader Nicolás Maduro, according to reports.
Moscow’s concern extends beyond the loss of a key political ally for Russian President Vladimir Putin.
The greater fear is that Venezuela’s vast oil reserves could now fall under U.S. influence, potentially flooding global markets and driving prices down.
Venezuela holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves, exceeding those of Saudi Arabia.
Yet years of mismanagement and U.S. sanctions have left much of that oil untapped, keeping exports far below those of major producers such as Russia or Gulf states.
For Moscow, this situation was advantageous.
With Venezuelan oil largely locked out of global markets, supply remained constrained and prices higher, supporting Russia’s oil-dependent budget. That calculation could now change rapidly.
U.S. President Donald Trump has openly stated that U.S. energy companies would move into Venezuela to "rebuild" its oil sector.
If sanctions are lifted and American firms modernise production, Venezuela could sharply increase output within a relatively short period.
Energy analysts warn that a surge in Venezuelan supply would hit markets at a time when global demand growth is already slowing, putting significant downward pressure on prices.
For Russia, lower oil prices pose a serious economic risk. Revenues from oil and gas underpin state spending, including pensions, public-sector salaries and military costs linked to the war in Ukraine.
Even before the U.S. operation, Russian commentators had voiced unease.
Igor Yushkov of the Moscow-based Foundation for National Energy Security has said it was "economically and politically important" for Russia that Maduro remained in power, arguing that sanctions kept Venezuelan output low and prices high.
Russian businessman Oleg Deripaska has also warned that U.S. access to Venezuelan oil could allow Washington to cap global prices, pushing Russian crude below $50 a barrel.
From the Kremlin’s perspective, the issue goes beyond Venezuela.
It reflects growing U.S. leverage over global energy markets at a moment of heightened economic and geopolitical pressure on Russia.
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