Trump’s tariff remark and the Azerbaijan–Armenia peace process: what the timeline actually shows

At the end of last year, U.S. President Donald Trump was reported to have raised the Azerbaijan–Armenia peace agenda during a conversation with Israel’s prime minister, warning that if peace were not achieved, Washington could raise tariffs on both countries by 100 percent.

The remark was quickly amplified by several outlets, including BBC Azerbaijani, creating the impression that Azerbaijan was being pushed toward peace under economic pressure.

That framing does not align with the timeline of negotiations.

Peace talks predate any tariff remarks

The Azerbaijan–Armenia peace process did not begin after any alleged warning from Washington. It began years earlier.

On 6 April 2022, President Ilham Aliyev and Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan agreed to instruct their foreign ministries to begin preparing a peace treaty, marking the launch of a structured peace track.

On 6 October 2022, in Prague, the two sides reaffirmed mutual recognition of territorial integrity based on the 1991 Alma-Ata Declaration, providing the legal foundation for a future agreement.

Talks continued in Brussels in May and July 2023, focusing on border delimitation, transport links, and security arrangements. By mid-2023, negotiations had moved to article-by-article discussions.

From autumn 2023, the process became purely bilateral, with Azerbaijan and Armenia continuing direct talks without external mediation.

March 2025: agreed draft text

By March 2025, bilateral negotiations reached the stage of an agreed draft peace text, meaning the core articles of the agreement had been settled. The document has not yet been signed, but remaining issues were limited to technical and procedural matters.

This stage was reached well before any reported tariff-related pressure.

No evidence of tariff leverage

There is no confirmation that the White House discussed tariffs with Azerbaijan. No official U.S. statement or diplomatic exchange indicates that trade measures were used as leverage in the peace process.

Diplomatic sources told AnewZ that discussions between Azerbaijan and the United States on the peace agenda began in February 2025, involving U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Aryeh Lightstone. The talks were described as constructive and supportive of the existing process.

Azerbaijan’s role

Azerbaijan has stated that the peace initiative was launched at its own initiative.

This aligns with remarks previously made by Steve Witkoff, who recalled that Donald Trump once asked President Aliyev why Azerbaijan had not continued military operations despite having a superior army. According to Witkoff, Aliyev replied that his objective was limited to restoring occupied territories.

Witkoff described the decision as an example of statesmanship.

The Azerbaijan–Armenia peace process was not triggered by threats.

It began in 2022, advanced through substantive negotiations in 2023, became bilateral from autumn 2023, and reached an agreed draft text in March 2025. Claims that Azerbaijan was pushed toward peace by tariff pressure do not reflect the chronology or substance of the negotiations.

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