U.S. President Donald Trump has been weighing whether to deploy ground forces to seize Iran’s strategic oil hub of Kharg Island - an operation analysts say could be swift, but would expose U.S. troops to significant danger and potentially prolong, rather than shorten, the war.
Kharg Island lies 16 miles (26 km) off Iran’s coast at the northern end of the Gulf, about 300 miles (483 km) north-west of the Strait of Hormuz.
Its surrounding waters are deep enough to accommodate large tankers that cannot access the shallow coastal areas of the Iranian mainland.
The island handles 90% of Iran's oil exports and seizing it would give the United States the ability to severely disrupt Iran's energy trade, placing enormous pressure on Tehran's economy. Iran is the third largest producer in the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
U.S. forces carried out strikes against Kharg Island in mid-March. Trump said they had “totally obliterated” all military targets there and suggested oil infrastructure could be targeted next.
Two contingents of Marines could arrive in the region by the end of the month, and sources say the Pentagon is planning to deploy thousands of airborne troops to give Trump additional options should he order a ground assault.
U.S. troops could likely seize the island relatively quickly, but this would not necessarily lead to the swift and decisive end to the war that Trump has sought, particularly given its unpopularity at home ahead of the November midterm elections.
“A seizure and occupation of Kharg Island is more likely to expand and prolong the war than to deliver any sort of decisive victory,” Ryan Brobst and Cameron McMillan of the Foundation for Defence of Democracies wrote.
They said U.S. troops would be exposed to missile and drone attacks, including potentially small but lethal camera-equipped “first-person view drones” already used extensively in Ukraine.
“Following any successful strikes, the Iranian regime would be expected to release videos of those attacks online, using the graphic deaths of American service members as propaganda,” they said.
Trump may also hope that capturing Kharg Island would force Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and provide leverage in future negotiations, analysts say.
However, Tehran could respond by laying additional mines to target shipping, including floating mines deployed from the coast. This would make the region even more hazardous, further disrupting shipping already affected by the conflict.
A former commander of U.S. Central Command, Joseph Votel, told TWZ.com last week that while only 800 to 1,000 troops would be needed on Kharg Island, they would require logistical support that would also need protection.
Votel said the troops would be highly vulnerable and expressed doubt that seizing the island would offer any meaningful tactical advantage.
It would be “kind of an odd thing to do … But we could certainly do it if we had to,” he said.
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