Revolution, rivalry and an unfinished transition: Libya, 15 years on

Fifteen years after Gaddafi’s fall, Libya remains divided and unstable, with no agreed national elections held since 2014, and United Nations efforts still failing to produce a unified political settlement.

Gaddafi had come to power in 1969 after a military coup and governed through centralised state structures, security bodies and political committees, while Libya’s oil sector formed the main source of state revenue.

In March 2011, the United Nations Security Council adopted Resolution 1973 (2011), citing escalating attacks on civilians and the imminent threat to Benghazi, and invoking the Responsibility to Protect with support from the Arab League. The resolution authorised a no-fly zone and the use of “all necessary measures” to protect civilians, after which NATO began air operations.

Rebel forces advanced along the coastal highway, captured Tripoli in August, and Gaddafi was killed in Sirte in October.

Post-Gaddafi transition

The National Transitional Council served as the interim authority after the fall of Tripoli and oversaw the transition until power was transferred to the elected General National Congress in 2012.

The General National Congress operated alongside numerous armed groups that had formed during the uprising. Armed Islamist factions gained influence in eastern areas including Derna and parts of Benghazi.

The attack on the U.S. diplomatic mission in Benghazi in September 2012, in which the U.S. ambassador and three other personnel were killed, occurred during this period of competing armed actors and limited central authority.

Rival governments

Parliamentary elections that year deepened institutional division. The eastern House of Representatives was supported by the Libyan National Army under Khalifa Haftar, while western-aligned groups retained control of Tripoli.

Fighting expanded to oil terminals including Es Sider and Ras Lanuf, while airports, ministries and financial institutions were contested by armed factions.

In 2016, the UN-backed Presidency Council arrived in Tripoli and announced a Government of National Accord, although its authority was not fully recognised by institutions in the east.

Islamic State militants briefly controlled parts of Sirte before being pushed out by western-aligned forces with U.S. air support later that year.

War around Tripoli and 2020 ceasefire

In April 2019, Haftar’s forces launched an offensive toward Tripoli, advancing through Gharyan and surrounding areas.

Reuters reported prolonged clashes, artillery exchanges and drone activity involving foreign-supplied systems.

Thousands of people were displaced from the southern Tripoli districts and fighting continued into 2020 until a ceasefire was announced in October.

The ceasefire was followed by UN-led talks in Geneva that produced a roadmap and the selection of a unity government in early 2021.

Stalled political transition

Nationwide elections were planned for 24 December 2021, and more than 2.8 million Libyans registered to vote.

The election did not proceed after disputes over candidate eligibility, legal procedures and the sequencing of presidential and parliamentary ballots.

From 2022 to 2024, discussions continued over a constitutional basis for elections, involving delegations meeting in Geneva, Cairo and Tunis.

Institutions including the Central Bank of Libya and the National Oil Corporation were subject to rival claims and leadership disputes amid the broader political split.

Armed clashes occurred intermittently in Tripoli, Misrata and Zawiya, and foreign fighters and military contractors remained present despite the 2020 ceasefire terms.

By 2025 and early 2026, Libya did not have an agreed-upon electoral timeline.

The House of Representatives in the east and the Government of National Unity in Tripoli continued to issue competing decisions.

Localised clashes persisted in western Libya, and disputes over the leadership of security bodies and key state institutions remained unresolved.

The reported killing of Saif al-Islam Gaddafi in February 2026 in Zintan took place during this period of continued political division.

• Saif al-Islam Gaddafi, son of Libya’s late leader, has been shot dead

Oil, migration and unresolved political process

Libya’s oil sector experienced production swings caused by blockades and disputes over revenue management.

Output ranged from more than one million barrels per day during stable periods to sharp declines when ports or pipelines were closed.

In 2026, the National Oil Corporation launched its first licensing round since 2007, awarding exploration blocks to foreign companies.

Oil revenue continued to form the bulk of government income.

Migrant departures from western Libyan coastal areas continued, and international agencies reported cases of abuse and fatalities along these routes.

Fifteen years after the 2011 uprising, Libya remained divided between administrations in Tripoli and the east, backed by separate armed networks.

UN-led mediation continued and discussions over constitutional arrangements, security structures and election sequencing remain ongoing.

A unified political framework had not been agreed upon and national elections have not been scheduled.

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Libya Muammar Gaddafi Saif al-Islam Gaddafi UNSC NATO Civil war