Japan’s growing interest in Caspian crude reflects a pragmatic response to uncertainty in global energy markets and its continued reliance on the Middle East for more than 90% of its oil imports.
By redirecting part of its supply chain, Tokyo is seeking to reduce exposure to potential disruptions along key transit routes.
The position of Japan’s largest oil and gas exploration and production (E&P) company, INPEX, in the region underpins this shift. The company holds stakes in Kazakhstan’s Kashagan field, producing around 430,000 barrels a day, and Azerbaijan’s Azeri-Chirag-Gunashli complex, with output of roughly 350,000 barrels a day. The crude produced, largely light to medium grades, is comparable to Middle Eastern oil and suitable for Japanese refineries without significant adjustments.
Until recently, most of this oil was exported to Europe under long-term and spot contracts. INPEX now intends to redirect part of its spot volumes to Japan, where demand from domestic refiners and trading houses is expected to support the shift, which the company presents as contributing to supply stability.
The shift also brings logistical challenges. With traditional routes under pressure, shipments are expected to pass via the Red Sea, the Mediterranean, or around the Cape of Good Hope. Delivery times may extend to between 25 and 55 days, depending on origin - more than double the typical route via Hormuz - adding to transport costs.
Japan is also considering broader diversification, including increased imports from Central Asia, South America and the U.S. The transition, however, is likely to be gradual. U.S. crude accounted for 3.8% of Japan’s imports in 2025, underscoring the difficulty of rapidly reshaping supply structures.
At the same time, developments within the Caspian region point to constraints on future production. Kazakhstan’s national oil company, KazMunayGas, has suspended a joint offshore project at the Kalamkas-Sea and Khazar fields with Lukoil due to the impact of Western sanctions, according to chief executive Askhat Khassenov.
The fields, located in Kazakhstan’s sector of the Caspian Sea, are estimated to hold recoverable reserves of 48.5 million tonnes of oil and 19 billion cubic metres of gas. Production had been projected at around 4 million tonnes a year, with first oil expected by the end of 2029 and total investment estimated at $6.4 billion.
Sanctions imposed by the United States Department of the Treasury in October 2025 targeted Lukoil, complicating financing and access to technology, although a number of international projects in Kazakhstan were granted temporary exemptions until 2027.
Despite the suspension, Lukoil remains involved in major projects in Kazakhstan, including Tengiz oil field, Karachaganak field and the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, underscoring the continued but increasingly complex role of Russian companies in the region.
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One hundred years after the First World War and more than eighty years after the devastation of the Second World War gave rise to the United Nations, humanity once again finds itself living in an age of permanent crisis.
Flights arriving at Catania airport in eastern Sicily were suspended after volcanic ash from a new eruption of Mount Etna drifted into the airspace around the airport, disrupting operations at one of Italy’s busiest aviation hubs.
For months, efforts to secure the Red Sea have focused on what is happening in the water. Naval deployments have increased, governments have expanded maritime cooperation and shipping companies have adapted to persistent security threats.
Greenland has issued a “strong warning” to a U.S. oil company linked to President Donald Trump after drilling equipment was brought ashore without the required government approvals, according to British media.
Iran said it was nearing a final pact with Oman defining new shipping lanes between them through the Strait of Hormuz but repeated that the U.S. must meet other conditions.
Kazakhstan has begun building the Beineu-Saksaulsk highway, a new Middle Corridor link expected to shorten freight journeys between China and Europe by around 1,000 kilometres and reduce delivery times by up to three days.
Russia has welcomed what it describes as a shift in Georgia’s approach to the August 2008 war, praising statements that place responsibility for the conflict on former President Mikheil Saakashvili and his government.
Uzbekistan has secured preferential tariffs for fertiliser and petroleum product shipments through Kazakhstan’s Kuryk port to Georgian ports, as Uzbek cargo volumes across the Caspian continue to rise.
Police in eastern India used tear gas, batons and water cannon on Monday to disperse thousands of young protesters marching on the Jharkhand state legislature over alleged irregularities in civil service examinations.
Rising temperatures are threatening Georgia’s farms, energy supply and banking sector, with experts warning that the country has a narrow window to prepare before the economic costs grow significantly.
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