Global energy markets are bracing for a sharp supply squeeze after a combination of geopolitical conflict and extreme weather disrupted one of Central Asia’s most important oil export routes.
Loadings of Caspian CPC Blend crude have fallen sharply, with shipping data indicating exports will average between 800,000 and 900,000 barrels a day for the rest of January. That is around 45% below the volumes expected in mid-December, tightening availability and pushing up prices for remaining cargoes.
The disruption centres on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) terminal near Novorossiysk on Russia’s Black Sea coast. The terminal is the main route for Kazakh oil exports to global markets and accounts for nearly 80% of the country’s overseas shipments.
Meanwhile, between 1 and 12 January this year, Reuters sources say that the country's oil output was down 35% mainly due to export constraints via a Black Sea's terminal.
Traders monitoring cargo flows say the decline reflects a combination of military damage, adverse weather and logistical constraints.
Operations have yet to fully recover from a drone strike in late November that damaged a key mooring point at the terminal.
At the same time, persistent winter storms have delayed the return of a second loading facility from maintenance, forcing the terminal to operate intermittently with a single mooring.
The loading delays have filled onshore storage tanks, leaving pipeline operators with little choice but to halt crude intake until shipments resume.
Meanwhile Kazakhstan energy ministry said on Tuesday (13 January) that oil loadings at the Russian Black Sea terminal used by the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) are being carried out via the first single point mooring (SPM-1).
Four oil tankers near the terminal were hit by drones on Tuesday, Reuters sources told earlier on Tuesday.
Analysts say the disruption poses a more immediate risk to physical oil supply than several other geopolitical flashpoints that have dominated headlines in recent months.
Because Kazakhstan is landlocked and has limited alternative export routes, including rail and pipelines to China, any prolonged outage at Novorossiysk forces producers to cut output.
“Continued disruption to the CPC terminal has helped sustain bullish prompt Brent timespread flows,” Energy Aspects analysts Christian Scott-Mcwall, Craig Marsh and Nick Stadtmiller said in a note to clients.
The tightening supply has already reshaped price structures. CPC Blend, a light, sweet crude favoured by European refiners, has traded at a premium to dated Brent for the first time in more than a year, with recent deals reaching up to $1.20 a barrel.
The spread between Brent and Dubai crude prices also widened to $1.55 a barrel on Monday, its largest level since July, signalling stronger demand for European-grade barrels relative to Middle Eastern supplies.
Production risks for Kazakhstan
The disruption poses a significant economic risk for Kazakhstan, which produced about 1.8 million barrels a day in 2025. Its export capacity outside the CPC system is estimated at roughly half that level.
With storage facilities close to capacity, producers may be forced to shut in wells to prevent overflows. Traders say at least 21 of the 45 cargoes originally scheduled for loading this month have been cancelled, removing millions of barrels from the market.
While around 90% of CPC volumes originate in Kazakhstan, the pipeline also carries smaller quantities of Russian crude. Those flows had already declined following separate drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure in the Caspian Sea earlier this year.
As repair crews work amid harsh winter conditions, traders remain on alert. Any prolonged disruption at the CPC terminal could add further pressure to fuel prices in Europe, where energy security remains fragile.
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Kazakhstan’s Reform Commission has published a draft of a new Constitution that would mark the most extensive revision of the country’s law since independence, including an absolute ban on the death penalty and more rights and freedoms for citizens.
Kazakhstan lost around 3.8 million tonnes of oil exports following an attack on facilities of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov said, stressing that it is still too early to assess the losses in monetary terms.
The Aerospace Committee of Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Digital Development, Innovation and Aerospace Industry has declared 2026 the Year of Visiting Baikonur, marking a strategic shift in how the famous cosmodrome is presented internationally.
Kazakhstan has joined the first international education programme launched by OpenAI and plans to introduce the specialised artificial intelligence (AI) system, ChatGPT Edu, into its national education framework.
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Saturday that the United States has begun negotiations with European leaders over Greenland and that an agreement is already taking shape.
Dmitry Medvedev, said European countries have failed to defeat Russia in Ukraine and have instead inflicted serious economic damage on themselves, as he criticised EU policy, praised Donald Trump as a leader who seeks peace, and said Russia would “soon” achieve military victory in the war.
The United States accused Cuba of interfering with the work of its top diplomat in Havana on Sunday (1 February) after small groups of Cubans jeered at him during meetings with residents and church representatives.
Heavy snow continued to batter northern and western Japan on Saturday (31 January) leaving cities buried under record levels of snowfall and prompting warnings from authorities. Aomori city in northern Japan recorded 167 centimetres of snow by Friday - the highest January total since 1945.
A daylight robbery at a jewellery shop in Richmond, one of London’s most affluent and traditionally quiet districts, has heightened security concerns among residents and local businesses.
Talks with the U.S. should be pursued to secure national interests as long as "threats and unreasonable expectations" are avoided, President Masoud Pezeshkian posted on X on Tuesday (3 February).
Israel reopened the Rafah crossing on Monday (2 February) to a trickle of Palestinians for the first time in months, a major step in a U.S.-backed plan to end the war, though strict Israeli security checks slowed the process.
Azerbaijan and the United Arab Emirates have signed a Letter of Intent on defence cooperation during President Ilham Aliyev’s working visit to Abu Dhabi, marking a new step in expanding military ties between the two strategic partners.
U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi are expected to meet in Istanbul on Friday for renewed discussions on Iran’s nuclear programme, according to reporting by Axios.
Limited crossings took place at Rafah on Monday, as patients and families moved through the gates for the first time in months. Photographers captured the tension, relief, and emotional toll of separation at a crossing long marked by both isolation and hope.
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