Eurozone private sector growth almost stalled this month, a key survey showed on Tuesday, adding to evidence that the bloc is already feeling economic fallout from the U.S. and Israeli war with Iran, with inflation rising and growth slowing.
“The economic hit from higher energy prices could be felt very quickly,” Jack Allen-Reynolds at Capital Economics said. “Based on our working assumptions for energy prices, we suspect that the economy will stagnate rather than contract, but there are clearly risks in both directions.”
Interest rates are rising amid expectations of further European Central Bank rate increases to curb inflation, pushing some mortgage rates higher and denting disposable incomes.
Meanwhile, petrol prices have risen by more than 10% across the EU, while diesel is up over 20%. Even if the war ends relatively soon, prices are unlikely to fall quickly, as some energy infrastructure has been damaged and fuel bottlenecks may take several months to resolve.
The S&P Global flash eurozone Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index fell to a 10-month low of 50.5 in March, down from 51.9 in February, as the war drove input costs to their highest in more than three years and triggered the worst supply chain disruptions since mid-2022.
“The flash eurozone PMI is ringing stagflation alarm bells as the war in the Middle East drives prices sharply higher while stifling growth,” said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.
The fall in the PMI comes as German figures held up relatively well, while other major economies took a bigger hit, including France, where business confidence tumbled.
Separate data released a day earlier showed consumer confidence in the bloc falling to its lowest level since late 2023, marking one of the steepest declines on record and dropping well below its long-term average as economic pressures weigh on households.
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The Middle East conflict remains tense as diplomatic efforts continue alongside renewed Houthi attacks. Iran says it remains open to mediation, while the Saudi-led coalition says it intercepted a ballistic missile fired towards the kingdom.
Evacuations and the provision of humanitarian aid in the Russian-occupied southern Ukrainian town of Oleshky have begun, a senior Ukrainian official said on Friday. In a statement on Telegram, David Arakhamia said a six-day ceasefire was holding, and that more details would follow.
Rescuers searched the wreckage of two high-speed trains in central Spain on Thursday as the death toll rose to a provisional 74, making it the country's second fatal high-speed rail disaster this year.
Russian President Vladimir Putin said Russia remains willing to rebuild relations with European countries but warned that any wider conflict on the continent would leave no winners, as he commented on recent diplomatic contacts with Nordic leaders and growing security concerns in the Baltic region.
Qatari mediators returned to Tehran on Friday as part of efforts to reach a deal between the U.S. and Iran, according to an official briefed on the talks.
China’s GJ-21 carrier-based stealth reconnaissance and strike drone has completed its first take-off and landing on board the Sichuan, the country’s first Type 076 amphibious assault ship, state media reported on 30 October.
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A high-speed train involved in Wednesday's deadly collision in Spain was travelling at between 160 and 200 kilometres per hour, far above the 40 km/h safety limit, according to a preliminary investigation published on Friday.
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