Eurozone private sector growth almost stalled this month, a key survey showed on Tuesday, adding to evidence that the bloc is already feeling economic fallout from the U.S. and Israeli war with Iran, with inflation rising and growth slowing.
“The economic hit from higher energy prices could be felt very quickly,” Jack Allen-Reynolds at Capital Economics said. “Based on our working assumptions for energy prices, we suspect that the economy will stagnate rather than contract, but there are clearly risks in both directions.”
Interest rates are rising amid expectations of further European Central Bank rate increases to curb inflation, pushing some mortgage rates higher and denting disposable incomes.
Meanwhile, petrol prices have risen by more than 10% across the EU, while diesel is up over 20%. Even if the war ends relatively soon, prices are unlikely to fall quickly, as some energy infrastructure has been damaged and fuel bottlenecks may take several months to resolve.
The S&P Global flash eurozone Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index fell to a 10-month low of 50.5 in March, down from 51.9 in February, as the war drove input costs to their highest in more than three years and triggered the worst supply chain disruptions since mid-2022.
“The flash eurozone PMI is ringing stagflation alarm bells as the war in the Middle East drives prices sharply higher while stifling growth,” said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.
The fall in the PMI comes as German figures held up relatively well, while other major economies took a bigger hit, including France, where business confidence tumbled.
Separate data released a day earlier showed consumer confidence in the bloc falling to its lowest level since late 2023, marking one of the steepest declines on record and dropping well below its long-term average as economic pressures weigh on households.
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Start your day informed with AnewZ Morning Brief. Here are the top news stories for the 5th of August, covering the latest developments.
U.S. President Donald Trump said there was an "all-day negotiation" on Tuesday with Iran, characterising the talks positively while also threatening to hit Iran "really hard" if a deal was not reached.
Tehran had made plans to strike sites in Ukraine after Kyiv attacked an Iranian cargo ship in the Caspian Sea, a senior Iranian military adviser has said. Iran refrained from taking action after Kyiv said the strike was a mistake, Mohsen Rezaei told the state IRIB TV channel.
Start your day informed with AnewZ Morning Brief. Here are the top news stories for the 4th of August, covering the latest developments.
U.S. data analytics firm Palantir Technologies has reported a 93 per cent year-on-year jump in second-quarter revenue, even as the company faces continued criticism over its work with Israel's military and allegations linking its technology to the war in Gaza.a.
Türkiye's ruling alliance has submitted draft legislation to parliament aimed at advancing the peace process with the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK). The proposed law includes legal protections for many former militants and suspended prison sentences for some convicted members.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has dismissed the country's ambassadors to Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and several other countries. The removals came after a speech on Monday in which he said embassies would be judged on their effectiveness in securing weapons for Ukraine.
Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan have begun implementing a landmark 2022 border agreement, launching a land exchange to complete the demarcation of their shared frontier and pave the way for new infrastructure projects.
A new Ebola treatment centre is due to open this week in Bunia, eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, as authorities battle the country's largest and fastest-spreading Ebola outbreak on record. Officials hope the new facility will ease pressure on an overstretched healthcare system.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said Israeli forces will not withdraw from their current positions in Gaza until Hamas is fully disarmed, casting further doubt on a U.S.-backed proposal aimed at ending the war.
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