A new round of trilateral talks between Ukraine, Russia and the United States will take place in Abu Dhabi on 4–5 February, but analysts warn that deep divisions between Kyiv and Moscow make a breakthrough unlikely.
Moscow has described the negotiations as “complex and multi-directional”, while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said Kyiv is ready for a “substantive discussion” aimed at achieving a “real and dignified end to the war”.
Political analyst Orkan Nabiyev told AnewZ that the core challenge lies in the fundamentally opposing objectives of the two sides.
“The positions of the two countries, Ukraine and Russia, are diametrically opposed to each other,” Nabiyev said.
He said Russia’s ambitions extend far beyond eastern Ukraine, with Moscow seeking to maintain long-term strategic leverage rather than settle for limited territorial gains.
“The main goal of Russia is to take Donetsk, to hold the Donetsk region - and ultimately all of Ukraine - because Putin’s aim is to control all of Ukraine, not just a small region,” he said.
According to the analyst, this strategic gap makes meaningful compromise difficult and turns the negotiation process into a tactical exercise rather than a genuine peace effort.
He argued that Russia is using talks primarily to buy time and manage external pressure, particularly the risk of additional sanctions from Washington.
Nabiyev also noted that while the US administration has increased pressure on Ukraine to engage in diplomacy, Moscow has shown little willingness to make reciprocal concessions.
Previous ceasefire efforts, including a brief pause in attacks on Ukraine’s energy and civilian infrastructure, collapsed within days, highlighting the fragility of such arrangements.
Commenting on remarks by US President Donald Trump suggesting that “good news” could emerge from the talks, Nabiyev pointed to expectations of possible Ukrainian concessions.
“Good news may be Ukraine’s compromise on creating a demilitarised zone,” he said, adding that security-related compromises remain highly sensitive.
He also warned that domestic political constraints inside Russia further limit the Kremlin’s room for manoeuvre, making any major compromise difficult. As a result, Nabiyev said expectations for the Abu Dhabi talks should remain low.
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