U.S. President Donald Trump's threat of imposing trade tariffs on European countries is a maximalist move designed to force concessions on Greenland, according to geopolitical analyst Ana Evans.
Speaking to AnewZ from Lisbon, Portugal, Evans said the tariff threat represents a negotiating posture meant to extract strategic concessions from Europe on Greenland, rather than a settlement in itself.
“It’s a maximalist start of negotiations to then come back and reach a consensus that is very favourable to the U.S.,” she noted.
Evans’ comments come amid heightened tensions over Greenland, following Trump’s ultimatum of a 10 % tariff on imports from eight European countries, if a deal to purchase Greenland is not reached. The proposed tariff would start on 1 February 2026, and rise to 25 % by 1 June, if the matter is not resolved
The tariff threat, Evans noted, underscores Washington’s view of the island as critical for national security and Arctic influence, including missile defence and strategic positioning.
However, Europe has strongly rejected U.S. pressure.
EU leaders warned that punitive duties would undermine transatlantic relations and risk a dangerous downward spiral, while France and Germany emphasised that Europe “will not be blackmailed,” signalling readiness to consider retaliatory measures.
Evans said these developments demonstrate the high stakes of the dispute.
Davos Forum prospects
“The great hope at this point is precisely that the World Economic Forum will be a really important mechanism to make political leaders interact at the same time,” Ana Evans said, referring to the Davos forum.
The 2026 forum is taking place from 19 to 23 January, providing a platform for informal diplomacy, negotiations, and the exchange of policy ideas, including discussions on trade tensions and Arctic security.
“It allows leaders from the U.S., Europe, and Greenland to explore alternatives and prevent a full-scale trade war,” Evans added.
Importance of Greenland
Greenland’s geopolitical importance stems from its location in the Arctic which warrants control of the GIUK Gap - a strategic maritime corridor named as an initialism for Greenland, Iceland, and the United Kingdom.
It refers to the two stretches of open ocean separating these landmasses, forming a key passageway for naval and air forces, and is considered a critical choke point for monitoring and controlling movement in the North Atlantic.
Greenland is also home to the U.S.-owned Pituffik Space Base, vital for missile warning and northern defence.
It also contains rich deposits of critical minerals, including rare earth elements, essential for technology, renewable energy, and defence applications.
Pathways to resolution
Evans noted that multiple negotiation pathways remain, including technological cooperation, agreements on resource extraction, and production and excavation rights.
“There are technological agreements that could be possible, agreements on extracting the critical raw materials and owning extraction rights and production rights,” she said.
She also highlighted that expanded U.S. military presence in Greenland could be part of the outcome.
“The intensification of American presence through renewed American bases in Greenland is also possible,” the geopolitical analyst said, referencing the island’s historical Cold War-era military footprint.
Analysts agree the convergence of global leaders at Davos, including U.S. and European officials, makes the forum a crucial moment to ease tensions, discuss alternative arrangements, and avoid escalation into trade conflict.
“All these technological, economic, financial and land rights and excavation rights are possible,” Evans said, describing the high-level dialogues at the forum as “a very hopeful sign” for de-escalation.
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