Kazakhstan has partnered with China for a significant oil exploration project in the Caspian Sea.

Kazakhstan’s national oil company, Kazmunaigaz, has signed an agreement with China National Offshore Oil Corporation International Limited (CNOOC) to jointly carry out geological exploration in the Atrau region of western Kazakhstan.

The project covers a 960-square-kilometer area of the northeastern Caspian Sea. According to the terms of the agreement, exploration will be conducted on a 50-50 basis, though initial exploration costs will be entirely covered by the Chinese side. The project will involve seismic surveys and the drilling of a super-asalt exploration well approximately 2 kilometers deep. If initial results are promising, a second sub-asalt well, 4.5 kilometers deep, will be drilled.

While Kazakhstan seeks to expand its oil exploration efforts, it faces a challenge on the export front. Since the beginning of 2025, Kazakhstan’s oil exports to China have dropped by 82 percent, resulting in an $827 million decrease in revenue. Experts attribute this decline to China’s slowing economic growth and its shift towards electric vehicles.

In contrast to the decline in oil exports to China, Kazakhstan has seen some positive developments. Exports to countries like Bulgaria, Spain, Azerbaijan, and Romania have increased, and new markets such as Egypt and the Bahamas have emerged.

Despite growing production, Kazakhstan's overall oil exports have decreased by 14 percent, with the first quarter of 2025 showing a drop from 17.8 million tons to 15.3 million tons. Additionally, six countries, including South Korea, India, and the United Kingdom, have completely stopped purchasing Kazakh oil.

As Kazakhstan’s oil industry adapts to these changes, geopolitics continues to influence both the price of oil and the geography of global energy markets.

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