Russia’s liquefied natural gas transit through Azerbaijan is emerging as a strategically significant development for Armenia at a time of rising domestic pressure on energy supplies, according to political analyst Fuad Karimli.

Speaking to AnewZ, Karimli said the issue has gained urgency as Armenia faces higher gas prices and supply disruptions from other sources.

"It’s really significant in terms of having a strategic aspect for Armenia," he said. "From the beginning of the year, there are increasing gas prices within the country. There are delays in shipments as well as some cuts in shipments from Iran due to the situation there right now."

He said this has pushed energy diversification higher on Armenia’s strategic agenda.

"So I think diversification for Armenia in terms of their natural gas is really strategically important for their domestic security," Karimli added.

Karimli said Azerbaijan’s role as a transit route for Russian liquefied gas carries political as well as economic significance, reinforcing Baku’s ambitions as a regional energy hub.

"In terms of Azerbaijan’s role, it shows that Azerbaijan is ready and willing, as it’s already stated before, to be a regional hub," he explained, pointing to the country’s existing role in supplying energy to European Union countries.

"But this takes it another step. We can also provide energy to neighbouring countries as well that we haven’t had before," he added.

According to Karimli, the arrangement reflects both economic logic and confidence-building between Azerbaijan and Armenia.

"To an extent, I think it’s some of both," he said. "Yes, it is an economic move in the term that we’re providing supply of natural gas to a country that requires it. And for them, it’s also an economic move that diversifies their sources as well as decreasing their costs. But it’s also a significantly big confidence-building step."

Energy, trade and post-conflict dynamics

Karimli said energy cooperation could become a foundation for longer-term engagement between the two countries following decades of conflict.

"First of all, energy is a resource that all countries need consistently. So having that connectivity, especially at a regional level, it shows that the countries are ready to increase their interdependence, something that has been lacking for the past three decades,"  he explained.

He added that this reflects a broader shift in the post-conflict environment.

"It also shows that we’re moving into a new normal, that the post-conflict situation has more interconnectivity and willingness from the countries to cooperate," he said.

From a domestic perspective, Karimli said the development is likely to be viewed in Azerbaijan as part of a wider peace-building process.

"In Azerbaijan, in terms of the perception, it reiterates the fact that we’re winning the peace," he said. "This doesn’t just mean a cessation of hostilities, but also increased interdependence in terms of economic aspects."

He said trade between Azerbaijan and Armenia has expanded more rapidly than political reconciliation and could influence public opinion on both sides.

"The previous few months have shown that while the political reconciliation process is progressing, it is being hindered by some factors, but the trade is increasing at a very rapid rate," he said. "Once the public from both countries see that having a trade normalisation and the benefits that it brings, it could push them to understand that political reconciliation has to happen faster."

Karimli cautioned that regional sensitivities remain, particularly involving neighbouring powers, but said recent energy and trade developments have laid the groundwork for deeper economic ties.

"I think this really sets the foundation for the future," he said. "In the short term, in terms of one to two years, the connectivity between the two countries has to be much more strengthened, as well as diversification of the trade products."

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Taken together, the emerging gas transit route highlights how energy cooperation is beginning to reshape economic ties and post-conflict dynamics in the South Caucasus.

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