Global temperatures are projected to rise by up to 2.8°C above pre-industrial levels by 2100 under current climate policies, according to a United Nations report published on 21 October, raising concerns about the world's ability to meet international climate targets.
The UN Environment Programme (UNEP) warned that even under its most optimistic scenario, global warming is expected to temporarily reach 1.7°C to 1.8°C by mid-century, exceeding the 1.5°C target established under the Paris Agreement.
According to the report, existing national climate pledges would limit warming to approximately 2.6°C by 2100 if fully implemented, compared with 2.8°C under current policies. Both projections are higher than last year's estimates, partly reflecting the United States' withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and revised assessments of historical greenhouse gas emissions.
To achieve the most optimistic outcome, global emissions would need to fall by 18 per cent from 2025 levels by 2030, 45 per cent by 2035 and 69 per cent by 2040. However, current national plans would deliver reductions of only 5 per cent to 8 per cent by 2030 and 11 per cent to 15 per cent by 2035.
The report found that climate commitments submitted over the past year had made virtually no difference to projected global warming.
Under the 2015 Paris Agreement, countries committed to limiting global temperature increases to well below 2°C, while pursuing efforts to keep warming within 1.5°C. UNEP said limiting warming to 1.5°C without exceeding that threshold, or with only limited overshoot, was no longer considered achievable.
Its new lowest-overshoot scenario offers roughly a 50 per cent chance of bringing temperatures back to 1.5°C or below by 2100. However, achieving that outcome would depend heavily on large-scale carbon removal technologies, whose feasibility remains uncertain.
The findings come ahead of the COP31 climate summit in Türkiye, where governments are expected to face renewed pressure to strengthen their emissions reduction commitments.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres urged countries not to abandon efforts to curb global warming, warning that continued emissions are intensifying floods, wildfires and other climate-related disasters.
Despite the rapid expansion of renewable energy and the introduction of climate policies in many countries, UNEP stressed that urgent and substantial emissions reductions remain essential to limiting future temperature increases.
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The world is on course for dangerous levels of global warming despite international climate pledges, with greenhouse gas emissions hitting record highs and the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C target increasingly out of reach, according to a UN assessment.
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