Climate Change: Why scientists say the world is running out of time

The world is on course for dangerous levels of global warming despite international climate pledges, with greenhouse gas emissions hitting record highs and the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C target increasingly out of reach, according to a UN assessment.

The world is increasingly likely to exceed the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C warming threshold within the next decade, according to the latest assessment from the UN Environment Programme (UNEP), highlighting the growing gap between governments' climate promises and the action needed to avert the worst effects of climate change.

The warning comes as global greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise, despite years of international negotiations to reduce fossil fuel use and speed up the transition to cleaner energy.

UNEP estimates that current national climate commitments would put the world on track for between 2.3°C and 2.5°C of warming above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century. Under existing government policies alone, temperatures could rise by approximately 2.8°C.

Both scenarios would put the world well beyond the targets set under the 2015 Paris Agreement.

Paris goals drifting further out of reach

Under the Paris Agreement, countries committed to keeping global warming well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels while pursuing efforts to limit it to 1.5°C.

Scientists have long warned that every fraction of a degree matters. Although the effects of climate change intensify gradually rather than at a single threshold, research shows that warming beyond 1.5°C significantly increases risks to ecosystems, food supplies, water resources, coastal communities and public health.

UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen has warned that repeated rounds of climate pledges have failed to deliver the emissions cuts needed, despite mounting scientific evidence and advances in clean energy technology.

Emissions at record highs

Global greenhouse gas emissions climbed to a record high in 2024, underscoring the scale of the challenge facing governments.

To keep the 1.5°C target within reach, emissions would need to fall sharply over the coming decade. UNEP estimates that global emissions must be reduced by more than half by 2035, compared with 2019 levels.

Even limiting warming to 2°C would demand substantial cuts beyond those expected under current policies.

The findings expose a widening divide between governments' climate promises and the reality of rising emissions.

A hotter planet already emerging

The UN warning comes amid mounting evidence that the planet is experiencing unprecedented warming.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has reported that recent years have been the hottest on record, with global average temperatures repeatedly reaching new highs.

Ocean temperatures have also broken records. As the oceans absorb most of the excess heat trapped by greenhouse gases, rising temperatures are fuelling marine heatwaves, coral bleaching and increasingly intense weather events.

Scientists emphasise that a single year of warming above 1.5°C does not mean the Paris Agreement target has been formally exceeded, because it is measured over a longer period.

However, the growing frequency of record-breaking temperatures has intensified fears that the world is approaching a sustained breach of the threshold.

Why forecasts have changed

UNEP's latest warming projections are slightly lower than some earlier estimates, but experts warn that this does not necessarily signal meaningful progress.

Some of the change reflects revisions to scientific methods rather than significant reductions in emissions.

Political developments have also clouded the outlook. The U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement in early 2026 removed anticipated emissions cuts from one of the world's largest economies, affecting global projections.

Meanwhile, several countries have yet to submit stronger climate plans for the coming decade, adding to concerns ahead of future international negotiations.

Renewables growing, but fossil fuels remain dominant

Renewable energy is expanding rapidly, offering some hope despite the worsening climate outlook.

Solar and wind power are growing across much of the world, supported by rising investment. The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects renewables to remain the fastest-growing part of the global energy system.

Yet the expansion of clean energy has not been fast enough to replace fossil fuels at the scale required to meet international climate targets.

Coal, oil and gas remain vital to many economies, while energy demand continues to increase in developed and developing countries alike.

Financing is another major obstacle, particularly for lower-income nations. Developing countries have repeatedly warned that inadequate international financial support is slowing efforts to cut emissions and adapt to the effects of climate change.

The challenge ahead

Scientists increasingly believe that temporarily exceeding the 1.5°C threshold is likely. The critical question is how far temperatures will rise beyond that limit, how long they will remain there and whether emissions can be cut quickly enough to reverse the trend.

UNEP maintains that rapid emissions reductions over the next decade could still limit long-term warming and improve the chances of bringing temperatures back towards the Paris Agreement's target by the end of the century.

Although the window for action is narrowing, experts stress that the difference between 1.6°C, 2°C and 3°C of warming would have enormous consequences for economies, ecosystems and communities worldwide.

The latest UN assessment delivers a stark warning: while some climate damage is now unavoidable, the severity of future impacts will depend on how quickly governments, businesses and consumers act over the next decade.

Read more:

• Baku Climate Action Week focuses on turning commitments into action
• EU adds $17m to WFP programme as climate shocks deepen Afghanistan’s food crisis
• Bangladesh says $300 billion climate finance goal falls short, calls for more support

Tags

News Climate and Environment global warming UN