The world remains far off track to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement, according to the 16th edition of the UN Environment Programme’s (UNEP) Emissions Gap Report, released this week.

The report finds that even if all current national climate pledges are fully implemented, global warming by the end of this century is projected to reach 2.3 to 2.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

If countries only follow current policies, the temperature rise would reach about 2.8°C the report warns, far beyond the 1.5°C threshold scientists say is critical to avoid the most dangerous climate impacts.

Compared to last year’s projections of 2.6–2.8°C under pledges and 3.1°C under current policies, the new figures suggest a modest improvement.

However, UNEP notes that methodological updates account for roughly 0.1°C of that change, while the upcoming withdrawal of the United States from the Paris Agreement will cancel out another 0.1°C.

In practical terms, the latest round of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) has “barely moved the needle” on global temperature projections.

The Paris Agreement commits nations to limiting global warming to “well below 2°C” and to pursue efforts to keep it under 1.5°C.

Yet the 2025 report finds that meeting those goals will require drastic cuts to greenhouse gas emissions by up to 35 percent by 2035 to stay on a 2°C pathway, and 55 percent to align with 1.5°C, compared to 2019 levels.

“Given the size of the cuts needed, the short time available, and a challenging political climate, exceeding 1.5°C is now very likely within the next decade,” the report concludes.

UNEP warns that a temporary overshoot of 1.5°C is almost unavoidable, but stresses that it must be limited in scale and duration. Faster and deeper reductions in emissions are essential to minimize climate risks and damages, and to make it technically feasible to return to 1.5°C by the end of the century — though doing so will be “extremely challenging.”

Every fraction of a degree of avoided warming, UNEP says, means lower losses for people and ecosystems, lower economic costs, and less dependence on uncertain carbon removal technologies later this century.

Since the Paris Agreement was adopted a decade ago, global temperature projections have fallen from 3–3.5°C to the current 2.3–2.5°C range — progress driven largely by technological advances rather than political breakthroughs.

UNEP points out that low-carbon technologies such as wind and solar power are now widely available and increasingly cost-effective, with deployment accelerating worldwide. The challenge lies instead in political will, financial support to developing countries, and restructuring the global financial system to enable a large-scale green transition.

The 2025 Emissions Gap Report underscores a stark truth: despite rising climate awareness and rapid growth in renewable energy, current national efforts are insufficient to prevent severe and irreversible climate disruption.

To stay on track for 1.5°C, global cooperation must intensify, especially in scaling up climate finance, phasing out fossil fuels, and ensuring equitable access to clean technologies.

“Climate change remains a collective action problem,” UNEP notes. “The technologies exist, the pathways are known, what’s needed now is the political choice to act faster.”

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