Italy’s NATO spending plan under scrutiny despite public confidence

Italy’s government is facing internal doubts over whether its plan to meet NATO’s defense spending target of 2 percent of GDP will satisfy NATO and the European Commission, despite publicly maintaining confidence in its budget strategy.

Italy’s ambitious plan to hit NATO’s 2 percent defense spending target by the end of 2025 may not survive scrutiny from NATO or the European Commission, according to two Italian officials familiar with ongoing budget discussions.

Publicly, the government insists it will reach the target by reclassifying existing civil expenditures, such as the coast guard and financial police, under defense. However, privately, officials question whether this approach will be accepted by Brussels or NATO, as Rome tries to balance alliance commitments with domestic fiscal constraints.

The move comes amid growing pressure from Washington for NATO allies to spend up to 5 percent of their GDP on defense. Finance Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti has insisted Italy will meet its obligations without increasing absolute defense spending, thereby protecting politically sensitive sectors like healthcare from further cuts.

Italy's parliament is set to debate Giorgetti’s projections this Thursday, but government sources anticipate renewed pressure at the NATO summit in June. Both NATO and the Commission are expected to review member states’ commitments more rigorously, raising the possibility that Rome’s accounting method may be rejected or forced to be revised.

“There will be political pressure from both the EU and NATO to spend more,” one of the officials said, referring to the 2 percent threshold as merely a “baseline.”

To appease its allies, Rome may be forced to shift funding from other sectors or prioritize defense purchases that appeal to Washington, such as U.S.-made weapons systems, while scaling back spending on personnel and dual-use items. Officials say the reclassification plan has been legally structured to withstand scrutiny, but they concede that external challenges remain likely.

Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has made increased defense spending a key point in talks with U.S. President Donald Trump, tying it to broader negotiations on reduced tariffs and a renewed U.S.-EU partnership.

Still, the issue remains politically sensitive at home. Italy has one of the EU’s lowest defense expenditures — just 1.49 percent of GDP last year — and is under pressure from Brussels to cut deficits after years of pandemic-driven spending. The European Commission has floated a possible exemption of up to 1.5 percent of GDP in new defense spending from deficit rules, but Giorgetti has dismissed that option, favoring instead a redefinition of existing costs.

With public opposition to rearmament running high and a new wave of austerity on the horizon, the Meloni government may soon face a tough balancing act between meeting NATO expectations and maintaining domestic political stability.

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