China’s Belt and Road Initiative recorded its strongest year since launch in 2025, with Chinese investment and construction activity surging across Asia, Africa and the Middle East despite years of criticism that the programme was losing momentum.
According to a joint report by the Griffith Asia Institute in Australia and the Green Finance and Development Center at Fudan University in Shanghai, total Chinese engagement across the 150 countries participating in the initiative reached 213.5 billion U.S. dollars through around 350 deals - a 19% increase in deal numbers compared with 2024.
Construction contracts alone climbed to 128.4 billion U.S. dollars, up 81% year-on-year, while investments reached 85.2 billion U.S. dollars, marking a 62% rise.
For a programme that critics had increasingly portrayed as overstretched and in retreat, the figures represented a sharp reversal.
Launched by President Xi Jinping in 2013, the Belt and Road Initiative was designed to expand China’s economic influence across Asia, Africa, the Middle East and beyond through infrastructure investment, construction projects and trade partnerships. Since its launch, cumulative Chinese engagement under the initiative has reached nearly 1.4 trillion U.S. dollars.
What 2025 demonstrated, however, is that the programme is not slowing down but evolving and accelerating.
For several years, Beijing promoted what it described as “small and beautiful” projects - smaller-scale, community-focused investments intended to ease concerns over debt-heavy mega-projects that had sparked political backlash in some partner countries.
That approach now appears to be fading.
As one of the report’s lead authors put it: “Small yet beautiful should be seen as a bygone.”
Average project values are increasing once again, signalling the return of large-scale infrastructure deals.
Energy dominated Belt and Road activity in 2025, accounting for 43% of China’s total BRI engagement.
Analysts described the year as simultaneously the greenest and dirtiest on record for Belt and Road energy projects.
Investment in renewable energy, including solar and wind power, reached record levels. However, deals involving oil, gas, pipelines and processing facilities also rose sharply.
Renewables accounted for just 21% of China’s overseas energy engagement, while fossil fuels represented more than 75% - the highest proportion since 2014. The figures underline the tension between China’s overseas investments and its stated climate ambitions.
Africa emerged as the single largest market for Chinese Belt and Road engagement in 2025, with activity reaching 61.2 billion U.S. dollars - a staggering 283% increase compared with 2024.
Much of the growth came through construction contracts rather than direct investment.
Analysts suggest Chinese firms may be seeking alternative markets and supply chains as rising U.S. tariffs complicate trade elsewhere. Africa’s growing role as a supplier of critical minerals and rare earth elements has also become increasingly important to Beijing’s long-term strategy.
Mining was another standout sector during the year.
China’s engagement in metals and mining reached a record 32.6 billion U.S. dollars in 2025, with around 60% of those deals concentrated in Kazakhstan, which holds reserves of 15 rare earth elements.
Technology and manufacturing also recorded strong growth, reflecting a broader transformation in the Belt and Road Initiative - from a builder of roads and ports into an exporter of industrial capacity and manufacturing infrastructure.
Whether the resurgence of the Belt and Road Initiative ultimately benefits recipient countries remains deeply contested.
Large infrastructure projects can deliver jobs, transport links and economic development, but they can also increase debt burdens and deepen economic dependence on China.
The balance of power in negotiations varies significantly between countries. What now appears beyond doubt, however, is that China’s Belt and Road Initiative is far from winding down.
If anything, growing trade tensions and the global scramble for critical resources may be giving it renewed momentum.
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