China’s carbon emissions grew far less than previously thought over the past five years, according to a new analysis that is drawing close attention from climate researchers worldwide.
The revision stems from a change in how China measures carbon intensity, its core climate indicator, effectively halving the reported growth in the country’s carbon dioxide emissions.
The revised measure of carbon intensity - the amount of carbon dioxide produced per unit of economic output - suggests China’s emissions rose by just 7 per cent between 2020 and 2025, compared with the 14 per cent increase indicated by previous official statistics.
In real terms, the difference amounts to a downward revision of roughly 700 million metric tonnes of carbon dioxide per year, equivalent to the total annual emissions of either Germany or South Korea.
Before examining what changed, it is important to understand what carbon intensity means and why China uses it. Unlike absolute emissions figures - a straightforward measure of how much carbon dioxide a country releases into the atmosphere - carbon intensity measures emissions relative to economic output.
A country that expands its economy while keeping emissions relatively stable will see its carbon intensity fall, even if total emissions continue to rise. China has long used carbon intensity as its primary climate benchmark, arguing it is a fairer measure for a developing economy that is simultaneously industrialising, lifting people out of poverty and building the infrastructure of a modern society.
While China has never publicly detailed exactly how it calculates carbon intensity, statistics in its latest five-year plan appear to reflect a revised methodology.
The new approach includes industrial process emissions within the carbon intensity calculation. That inclusion matters because China’s cement industry has been contracting in recent years as the country’s property and construction boom has slowed. Adding cement emissions to the calculation therefore lowers the overall intensity figure.
At the same time, the revised methodology excludes non-energy uses of fossil fuels, largely linked to the chemicals industry, where growth has been rapid over the past five years. Removing those emissions from the calculation further reduces the reported intensity figure.
The practical consequences are significant. The changes mean China could meet its 2030 climate commitments even if absolute emissions continue to rise, marking a meaningful shift in the country’s path towards its stated goal of reaching peak carbon emissions before 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060.
Under the previous methodology, China appeared to be falling short of its interim targets. Under the revised framework, it is close to meeting them.
Climate researchers have approached the revision with a mixture of interest and caution. The analysis, conducted by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air for the Carbon Brief publication, does not accuse China of misreporting.
Instead, it argues the methodological shift reflects genuine changes in the structure of the Chinese economy and that different measurement choices can lead to materially different conclusions about climate progress. The revised scope also appears to provide a clearer picture of where China’s emissions are coming from as the economy matures and shifts away from heavy construction towards manufacturing and services.
What is clear is that China’s emissions trajectory looks markedly different under the new framework than under the old one. Whether that reflects a more accurate account of progress or a more favourable framing of a difficult reality is likely to remain the subject of debate among climate scientists, policymakers and China’s negotiating partners in the months ahead, particularly as the world prepares for the next round of global climate commitments later this year.
U.S. President Donald Trump said a preliminary agreement to end the war in the Gulf has been signed by the U.S. and Iran, though details have yet to b...
More than 8,300 participants from 100 countries have gathered in Uzbekistan's capital for the fifth Tashkent International Investment Forum (TIIF-2026...
Seven people have been arrested in Italy over suspected sabotage attacks on high-speed railway lines during the Winter Olympics earlier this year....
Pakistan's heavy reliance on imported energy was laid bare by the U.S.-Iran conflict, which disrupted regional supplies, drove up costs and exposed vu...
Following Armenia’s parliamentary vote, AnewZ spoke to people in Yerevan about the mood in the capital, relations with Azerbaijan and the country’...
U.S. President Donald Trump said a preliminary agreement to end the war in the Gulf has been signed by the U.S. and Iran, though details have yet to be made public and both countries said a permanent truce is yet to be negotiated.
Macao opened the 17th International Infrastructure Investment and Construction Forum on Thursday, with officials and industry leaders highlighting the role of green and digital technologies in strengthening global infrastructure connectivity.
Tajikistan has strengthened its position as one of Central Asia’s fastest-growing economies. According to the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), the trend is supported by investment activity, industrial expansion and large-scale infrastructure projects.
In the runup to the G7 summit, hosted by France in Évian-les-Bains on Monday, 15 June, China has addressed global economic balances in a videoconference hosted by French President Emmanuel Macron. It is a rarity for Beijing to engage directly with the group.
Details of a reported draft memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran offer the clearest picture yet of how both sides plan to end months of conflict and move towards a longer-term settlement.
The U.S. and Iran say they have reached a deal to end their conflict, with an immediate ceasefire and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz after the lifting of the U.S. naval blockade. Talks will continue over the next 60 days to finalise the agreement
A senior U.S. official said on Monday that the memorandum of understanding linked to the U.S.-Iran agreement had been signed by President Donald Trump, Vice President JD Vance and Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has told U.S. President Donald Trump that Israel does not consider itself bound by a Lebanon-related provision in an emerging agreement with Iran, according to Israeli officials.
A strong 6.7-magnitude earthquake struck Indonesia's Sulawesi island early Tuesday, killing at least one person and injuring four, according to emergency authorities.
Seven people have been arrested in Italy over suspected sabotage attacks on high-speed railway lines during the Winter Olympics earlier this year.
Pakistan's heavy reliance on imported energy was laid bare by the U.S.-Iran conflict, which disrupted regional supplies, drove up costs and exposed vulnerabilities in the country's energy security. However, a proposed peace agreement now offers hope for economic relief.
The UK has unveiled a major new package of sanctions against Russia, targeting the shadow fleet, military supply chains and financial networks that support the Kremlin's war in Ukraine.
Russian sailors aboard a naval frigate fired warning shots at a civilian yacht in the English Channel on Tuesday after the vessel reportedly came too close, according to a source familiar with the incident.
Leaders of the Group of Seven (G7) have called for a strong and coordinated international response to the Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, urging countries to commit more resources to contain the spread of the virus.
You can download the AnewZ application from Play Store and the App Store.
What is your opinion on this topic?
Leave the first comment