China’s carbon emissions grew far less than previously thought over the past five years, according to a new analysis that is drawing close attention from climate researchers worldwide.
The revision stems from a change in how China measures carbon intensity, its core climate indicator, effectively halving the reported growth in the country’s carbon dioxide emissions.
The revised measure of carbon intensity - the amount of carbon dioxide produced per unit of economic output - suggests China’s emissions rose by just 7 per cent between 2020 and 2025, compared with the 14 per cent increase indicated by previous official statistics.
In real terms, the difference amounts to a downward revision of roughly 700 million metric tonnes of carbon dioxide per year, equivalent to the total annual emissions of either Germany or South Korea.
Before examining what changed, it is important to understand what carbon intensity means and why China uses it. Unlike absolute emissions figures - a straightforward measure of how much carbon dioxide a country releases into the atmosphere - carbon intensity measures emissions relative to economic output.
A country that expands its economy while keeping emissions relatively stable will see its carbon intensity fall, even if total emissions continue to rise. China has long used carbon intensity as its primary climate benchmark, arguing it is a fairer measure for a developing economy that is simultaneously industrialising, lifting people out of poverty and building the infrastructure of a modern society.
While China has never publicly detailed exactly how it calculates carbon intensity, statistics in its latest five-year plan appear to reflect a revised methodology.
The new approach includes industrial process emissions within the carbon intensity calculation. That inclusion matters because China’s cement industry has been contracting in recent years as the country’s property and construction boom has slowed. Adding cement emissions to the calculation therefore lowers the overall intensity figure.
At the same time, the revised methodology excludes non-energy uses of fossil fuels, largely linked to the chemicals industry, where growth has been rapid over the past five years. Removing those emissions from the calculation further reduces the reported intensity figure.
The practical consequences are significant. The changes mean China could meet its 2030 climate commitments even if absolute emissions continue to rise, marking a meaningful shift in the country’s path towards its stated goal of reaching peak carbon emissions before 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060.
Under the previous methodology, China appeared to be falling short of its interim targets. Under the revised framework, it is close to meeting them.
Climate researchers have approached the revision with a mixture of interest and caution. The analysis, conducted by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air for the Carbon Brief publication, does not accuse China of misreporting.
Instead, it argues the methodological shift reflects genuine changes in the structure of the Chinese economy and that different measurement choices can lead to materially different conclusions about climate progress. The revised scope also appears to provide a clearer picture of where China’s emissions are coming from as the economy matures and shifts away from heavy construction towards manufacturing and services.
What is clear is that China’s emissions trajectory looks markedly different under the new framework than under the old one. Whether that reflects a more accurate account of progress or a more favourable framing of a difficult reality is likely to remain the subject of debate among climate scientists, policymakers and China’s negotiating partners in the months ahead, particularly as the world prepares for the next round of global climate commitments later this year.
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