Portugal’s far-right leader André Ventura is using the presidential race to consolidate political power rather than to secure the office itself, according to a senior political analyst, who says the real objective lies in strengthening his position ahead of future parliamentary elections.

Speaking to AnewZ, Jorge Costa Oliveira said Ventura, the leader of the Chega party, has remained largely stuck between 20% and 25% support in legislative elections and is unlikely to break through in the presidential contest.

‘He comes to these elections more or less stuck at 23 to 25%,’ Oliveira said, arguing that Ventura’s campaign is designed to expand that base rather than win outright. ‘The prevailing idea is that he’s running in order to concentrate more and more votes so that later, in the legislative election, he can start from 30 or 33%.’

Portugal operates under a semi-presidential system, but Oliveira stressed that executive power lies primarily with parliament and the government that emerges from it. While the president holds important constitutional authority, including oversight of parliament, the role does not carry direct control over policy.

‘The real power in Portugal does not lie in the presidency,’ Oliveira said. ‘True power lies in the parliament and especially in the government that emanates from the parliament.’

According to the analyst, Ventura’s rise reflects a broader populist wave affecting Western democracies, fuelled in part by social media and anti-establishment rhetoric. However, he said Portugal’s social and demographic realities differ from countries such as France or Germany, where far-right movements often draw on deeper cultural divides.

Oliveira was particularly critical of Chega’s campaign on immigration, describing it as openly inflammatory and disconnected from Portugal’s actual migration patterns. He noted that the vast majority of immigrants in Portugal come from Portuguese-speaking countries, including Brazil, Angola, Mozambique and Cape Verde.

‘Portugal needs immigrants, and this is generally acknowledged,’ he said, dismissing claims of a broader immigration threat as ‘really a call for outright racism’.

Looking ahead, Oliveira said polling suggests Ventura would struggle in a second-round presidential vote, as voters across the democratic spectrum are expected to unite against the far right.

‘All polls indicate that any candidate who reaches the runoff would defeat Ventura,’ he said, pointing to voting patterns seen in other European countries.

• Socialist and far-right candidates head for Portugal's presidential runoff

Even so, Oliveira said the presidency remains politically relevant, particularly in a fragmented parliament, where a skilled president can exert pressure on governments and influence negotiations on key reforms.

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