European Union leaders meeting with Western Balkan counterparts in Brussels this week are working to refocus the bloc’s agenda on enlargement, with discussions heavily featuring Ukraine support and regional security.

Speaking to AnewZ, Political analyst Nikola Mikovic argued that the summit is most significant for Montenegro and Albania, which he called the frontrunners, citing membership timelines often set for 2028 and 2029. He noted, however, that earlier timelines have fallen through before, referencing EU expectations in 2018 for Montenegro to join by 2025, which did not materialise.

Mikovic said that Brussels’ renewed urgency is primarily geostrategic. He emphasised Montenegro and Albania’s access to the Adriatic Sea and also highlighted Bosnia and Herzegovina’s smaller coastline, contending that if these states join, the Adriatic would be more firmly consolidated under EU membership. He considered this strategically important if the continent faces a much larger conflict scenario. In his opinion, this security logic is a key reason the EU is pushing for progress after a decade in which no new member has joined.

Regarding why Montenegro is leading the accession process, Mikovic linked it to alignment with EU foreign policy choices and defence positioning. He explained that Montenegro has harmonised its foreign policy with the EU, implemented sanctions on Russia, and joined NATO, which he describes as an informal prerequisite that has applied to several earlier EU entrants from Eastern Europe. He also suggested that Montenegro has fewer disputes with neighbours compared to some others in the region, making it a more straightforward political fit for Brussels.

He added that enlargement is not solely a Western Balkans issue. Mikovic highlighted Moldova as another candidate that could progress swiftly, because its location is significant—bordering Ukraine and sitting on key rail links connecting Romania and Ukraine, which could become increasingly important under heightened security pressures in Europe.

Serbia, in his view, is much less likely to join soon. He noteed limited political will in Brussels for that step and points to domestic scepticism within Serbia, where he claims a majority opposes EU membership. Mikovic stated that Serbia faces a singular obstacle, as, unlike other candidates whose territorial integrity the EU supports, Belgrade is under pressure to accept Kosovo’s secession as a condition for membership—a move he believes no government in Belgrade is prepared for.

Ukraine remains central to discussions because Brussels wants reassurance that candidate states will support the EU’s long-term policy of backing Kyiv. Mikovic claimed most candidate states support Ukraine, describing Serbia as more complex, even though he noted that Belgrade has voted against Russia in major international forums.

He minimised broader regional tensions, arguing the main dispute likely to hinder enlargement is Serbia-Kosovo. Elsewhere, he suggested the region’s main economic driver is the EU’s dominance as a market, investor, and donor, and that several states are already deeply interconnected through trade and investment. He pointed to Montenegro’s use of the euro as an indication of how closely parts of the region are already functioning alongside EU systems.

• EU and Western Balkans leaders meet in Brussels to discuss enlargement

Looking towards 2026, Mikovic anticipated ongoing alignment with EU rules and negotiations, with practical steps such as the Western Balkans joining a roaming free zone—similar to arrangements Ukraine and Moldova already enjoy. He believed progress will be marked by the gradual opening and closing of negotiating clusters, with Montenegro expected to continue advancing while other candidates face a tougher journey.

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