Is Kordofan at risk of becoming another El Fasher?

Sudan’s Kordofan region is witnessing a rapid escalation of violence that echoes the devastation seen earlier this year in El Fasher, raising alarm among rights experts and humanitarian agencies who warn that civilians are again bearing the brunt of the conflict.

The crisis deepened on Thursday when a drone strike hit a kindergarten in the town of Kalogi in South Kordofan, killing 50 people, including 33 children, according to the Sudan Doctors’ Network. Paramedics who rushed to treat survivors were then struck in a second attack, while a third nearby civilian site was also hit, rights group Emergency Lawyers reported. Both groups blamed the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), calling the strikes a severe breach of international humanitarian law. Communication blackouts mean the real toll may be even higher.

International alarm grows as Kordofan deteriorates

Norway became the latest country to raise alarm over the spiralling civilian toll.
“The alarm is sounding for the Kordofan region in Sudan. I am extremely concerned about the reports of a large and increasing number of civilian casualties from airstrikes, artillery shelling, and summary executions,” Norwegian Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide said in a statement.

Eide warned that as the world is still learning the full scale of atrocities committed in El Fasher, “chilling news is emerging from Kordofan,” citing reports of aerial and drone attacks that have killed large numbers of civilians. He highlighted the desperate humanitarian situation in the besieged cities of Kadugli, Dilling and El Obeid, where famine is looming and civilians remain trapped.
“We cannot allow the besieged cities of Kordofan to become another El Fasher,” he said, calling on the RSF to uphold its obligation to protect civilians and urging all armed actors to refrain from airstrikes in populated areas. Eide appealed to countries with influence over the RSF to apply immediate pressure “to avoid new mass atrocities.”

UN warns history is repeating itself

The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, Volker Türk, has also warned that Kordofan risks becoming “another El Fasher” after the RSF seized Bara in North Kordofan in late October. OHCHR has documented at least 269 civilian deaths from airstrikes, shelling and summary executions since then, though the real number is likely higher due to major communication outages.

“It is truly shocking to see history repeating itself in Kordofan so soon after the horrific events in El Fasher,” Türk said, urging states to halt arms transfers and demand that all parties stop targeting civilians.

Human rights groups report retaliatory killings, abductions, sexual violence, forced recruitment — including of children — and widespread displacement. More than 45,000 people have fled in recent weeks.

The conflict, which began between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and RSF in April 2023, has increasingly shifted into the oil-rich Kordofan states following months of intense fighting in Darfur.

Humanitarian access collapsing, famine emerging

The humanitarian situation is rapidly deteriorating. UN spokesperson Stéphane Dujarric said aid agencies are warning of severe shortages after sieges by the RSF and allied SPLM-N forces cut off entire communities. Civilians in Kadugli and Dilling are facing “extreme hardship” with dwindling access to food, medicine and basic services.

The UN has already identified famine conditions in Kadugli. Attacks continue in Babanusa, West Kordofan, and fighting has prevented farmers from accessing fields, further eroding food supplies. Aid workers attempting to reach 1.1 million people in the region operate under “extraordinary risk.”

Fears of a new mass exodus

The intensifying conflict threatens to push the world’s largest displacement crisis into an even more severe phase. Nearly 40,000 people have fled the latest violence, mostly seeking shelter within Sudan. But UNHCR chief Filippo Grandi warned that deeper RSF advances towards major cities such as El Obeid could trigger another wave of refugees crossing borders.

“If El Obeid were to fall or be surrounded, I am certain we would see mass exodus,” he told Reuters. Families fleeing Kordofan and Darfur continue to report killings, detentions, forced recruitment and sexual violence. Some mothers have disguised their sons as girls to prevent abduction by fighters. Humanitarian operations, meanwhile, remain chronically underfunded.

A conflict spiralling towards catastrophe

More than 40,000 people have been killed and almost 12 million displaced since the Sudanese Armed Forces and the RSF began fighting in April 2023, according to UN and WHO figures. Aid groups warn the real figures may be far higher.

Both sides have traded accusations over additional drone strikes, including one near the Chad–Sudan border recently condemned by the RSF, though the claim could not be independently verified and the SAF has yet to comment.

Despite repeated international appeals, the pattern of siege, bombardment, starvation and mass displacement remains unchanged. Rights officials warn that, without urgent action, Kordofan could follow the same trajectory as El Fasher — a city scarred by executions, sexual violence and the mass killing of civilians.

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