EU’s next enlargement could redefine Europe’s energy security and competitiveness

The European Union’s next wave of enlargement, particularly involving candidate countries across Central and Eastern Europe, could prove decisive for the continent’s energy security and competitiveness.

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine exposed deep vulnerabilities in Europe’s energy systems, especially in Central and Eastern Europe. Yet, since those weaknesses were revealed, countries in the region have made significant progress in boosting their energy security and reducing dependence on Russian supplies. Major steps have been taken to build new liquefied natural gas (LNG) infrastructure, promote renewables, and expand cross-border connections, turning Central and Eastern Europe into the focal point of Europe’s energy transition.

As the EU prepares for the next enlargement round, it must carefully consider how to integrate its priorities on energy security and the green transition into the process. This enlargement could act as a catalyst for competitiveness, resilience, and geopolitical influence, or, conversely, deepen internal divisions and create new vulnerabilities.

Energy security must be prioritised

The EU’s upcoming seven-year budget, the Multiannual Financial Framework, presents a rare opportunity to strategically finance cross-border energy infrastructure, including in candidate countries. These investments are essential for a stable, integrated European energy market.

By prioritising energy security in the framework, Brussels can strengthen supply chains, accelerate market integration, and reduce economic risks for aspiring member states.

Ukraine’s role and transatlantic cooperation

As the EU moves toward admitting Ukraine, its energy integration must be accelerated. Doing so will enhance both Europe’s security and competitiveness.

Although much of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure has been destroyed by the conflict, reconstruction offers an opportunity to build cleaner technologies, decentralised grids, and critical interconnectors. The country’s vast gas storage capacity can bolster regional energy security, while cooperation with U.S. partners in producing new energy components could create jobs and drive innovation.

Transatlantic coordination will be key. U.S. expertise in nuclear technologies, particularly small modular reactors, and its financial mechanisms can speed up Ukraine’s integration into the EU’s energy system. Viewing Ukraine’s accession through the lens of broader energy reconstruction aligns Europe’s and Washington’s geopolitical and economic interests.

The 2040 test: enlargement and climate goals

As candidate countries move closer to joining, the EU must also assess how their energy integration will affect its emissions reduction strategy. The bloc has recently proposed a 2040 climate target, a 90% emissions cut compared with 1990 levels, a goal that will reshape Europe’s economy and energy sector over the next two decades.

However, this target will be finalised before new members join, effectively forcing candidates to accept ambitious and resource-intensive commitments without negotiation. Such an approach risks undermining unity and fuelling political discontent in both current and future member states.

To prevent this, potential members must be involved in the talks early on, ensuring that the 2040 goals remain realistic and achievable.

Brussels’ geopolitical opportunity

Former Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi recently warned that Europe must abandon the illusion that economic power alone guarantees geopolitical influence. Without coordinated action, he said, the EU risks falling behind in industrial competitiveness, energy security, and global reach.

By strategically linking enlargement to Central and Eastern Europe’s energy security, the EU can reclaim geopolitical strength. Integrating candidate countries into its energy networks, investing in their infrastructure, and aligning transatlantic objectives could turn Europe’s vulnerabilities into advantages.

Europe stands at a crossroads. Investment in the energy security of candidate states, strong transatlantic partnerships, and fair climate commitments will define whether the continent builds a competitive, secure, and sustainable future.

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