Fitch Solutions predicts stable inflation and exchange rate for Azerbaijan

Fitch Solutions (FS) forecasts Azerbaijan’s annual inflation to stay below 5% over the next decade.

The country's average inflation over the past ten years was 5.5%. While high food prices and the Russia-Ukraine war continue to exert pressure, inflation is expected to ease gradually.  

FS projects inflation at 4% in 2025, rising to 4.7% by 2027, then slowing to 2.7% in 2029 and 0.1% by 2034. The exchange rate is expected to remain stable, supported by steady oil and gas revenues.  

The Central Bank of Azerbaijan (CBA) targets inflation at 4±2% and relies on exchange rate control for price stability. Unlike the sharp devaluation in 2015, CBA is now in a stronger position, though high dollarization (48.4% of deposits in foreign currency) limits monetary policy effectiveness.

A four-year plan aims for inflation targeting by 2026, potentially increasing exchange rate flexibility.

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