Looking beyond the Israel narrative in Azerbaijan's foreign policy

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In times of geopolitical upheaval, nuance is often the first casualty. Complex realities are reduced to convenient narratives and countries caught in the crosscurrents of regional tensions find themselves portrayed through a single, often misleading lens.

This is precisely what has happened to Azerbaijan.

Following the latest escalation involving Iran, Israel and the U.S., commentary across parts of the international media and regional discourse has increasingly focused on Azerbaijan’s relationship with Israel. In some accounts - often amplified by Iranian narratives and their regional echo chambers - Baku is depicted as little more than a geopolitical extension of Israeli strategy.

Such portrayals are not only simplistic; they fundamentally misunderstand Azerbaijan’s foreign policy.

Azerbaijan’s diplomacy is not built around any single alliance. It is rooted in a deliberate and carefully balanced multi-vector strategy - one that engages Türkiye, the European Union, Russia, China, Israel and the broader Turkic world simultaneously. To understand Azerbaijan, one must look at the entire strategic mosaic rather than isolating a single tile.

Energy: The strategic foundation

Energy lies at the heart of Azerbaijan’s international outreach.

The country produces roughly 700,000 barrels of crude oil per day, exporting the bulk of it through the Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline, which carries Caspian crude to Türkiye’s Mediterranean port of Ceyhan. With a capacity approaching one million barrels per day, BTC has become one of Eurasia’s most significant east–west energy corridors.

From Ceyhan, Azerbaijani oil enters global markets - supplying Europe, the Mediterranean basin and Asia.

Some of this oil is purchased by Israeli refineries. Azerbaijan has been among Israel’s key crude suppliers in recent years, accounting for roughly 35–40 per cent of Israel’s crude imports.

This is precisely where much of the debate becomes misleading. These exports are commercial transactions conducted within global energy markets, not political transfers or strategic handouts. Oil flows according to price signals, contractual arrangements and logistical efficiencies - not geopolitical favouritism.

Israel itself maintains a diversified energy supply portfolio. Depending on market conditions, it sources crude from Kazakhstan, the U.S., Brazil, Gabon, Iraq and Norway, among others. Azerbaijani crude therefore represents one component of a broader global supply chain, not a singular dependency.

Natural gas and petrochemicals: A broader energy system

Placing Azerbaijan’s oil exports in context also requires understanding Israel’s wider energy mix.

Israel’s electricity system is primarily powered by domestic natural gas production from the Tamar and Leviathan offshore fields in the Eastern Mediterranean. These fields help meet domestic demand and enable Israel to export gas to Egypt and Jordan.

In petrochemicals and refined products, Israel imports feedstocks and energy inputs from multiple international suppliers. As in most commodity markets, diversification is the rule rather than the exception.

Against this backdrop, Azerbaijan’s crude exports represent a commercially driven segment of a complex international energy ecosystem.

Türkiye: The backbone of Azerbaijan’s strategic partnerships

If one bilateral relationship forms the backbone of Azerbaijan’s economic, security and energy diplomacy, it is unquestionably Türkiye.

The two countries’ partnership extends across energy infrastructure, defence cooperation, logistics and industrial investment.

Azerbaijani natural gas flows to Türkiye through the Trans-Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline (TANAP), a central pillar of the Southern Gas Corridor that now delivers Caspian gas to Europe. This corridor has become increasingly important for European energy diversification following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Equally significant is Azerbaijan’s investment footprint in Türkiye.

Azerbaijan’s state energy company SOCAR is the largest foreign investor in Türkiye, with total investments estimated at around $18–20 billion. These investments include:

• the STAR refinery in İzmir, one of the largest industrial investments in Türkiye’s history;
• the Petkim petrochemical complex, a major regional production hub;
• extensive logistics and port infrastructure;
• significant energy distribution and trading operations.

This deep industrial presence demonstrates that Azerbaijan’s engagement with Türkiye extends far beyond pipeline diplomacy.

Europe: An emerging energy partner

Europe has also become an increasingly important destination for Azerbaijani natural gas.

Through the Southern Gas Corridor, gas from the Shah Deniz field currently reaches Italy, Greece, Bulgaria and other European markets. In 2022, the European Union and Azerbaijan signed a strategic partnership aimed at doubling gas exports to Europe to around 20 billion cubic metres annually by 2027.

For Europe - seeking to reduce dependence on Russian energy - Azerbaijan has become an increasingly valuable part of the diversification strategy.

Israel: Technology and security co-operation

Energy is only one dimension of Azerbaijan’s relationship with Israel, which is also an important partner in other areas:

• advanced defence technologies;
• cybersecurity;
• agricultural innovation;
• water management systems;
• start-up ecosystems.

For a country located in a volatile geopolitical environment, these partnerships form part of a pragmatic national strategy to strengthen technological capacity and security resilience. Israeli technologies also contributed to Azerbaijan’s efforts to regain control of territories lost during the first Garabakh war.

Such cooperation is hardly unique in international relations. Many countries pursue similar partnerships based on mutual strategic interests.

Iran: A complex neighbour

The debate surrounding Azerbaijan’s relations with Israel also cannot be separated from its complicated relationship with Iran.

Despite deep historical and cultural ties - including a large ethnic Azerbaijani population in northern Iran - relations between the two countries have often been shaped by strategic suspicion. During the decades of conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Garabakh, Tehran was frequently perceived in Baku as relatively sympathetic to Yerevan.

At the same time, Azerbaijan has consistently sought to manage its relations with Iran cautiously, emphasising principles of sovereignty and non-interference while maintaining diplomatic engagement.

For Baku, the challenge has been to manage its regional environment while avoiding involvement in rivalries.

China, Russia and the Middle Corridor

Azerbaijan’s diplomatic outreach extends well beyond the West and the Middle East.

Under China’s Belt and Road Initiative, Azerbaijan plays a central role in the Middle Corridor - a transport route connecting China to Europe via Central Asia, the Caspian Sea, the South Caucasus and Türkiye.

This route offers a strategic alternative to trade corridors passing through Russia and is gaining increasing relevance in Eurasian logistics.

Meanwhile, Azerbaijan maintains a cautious but functional relationship with Russia, acknowledging Moscow’s regional role while carefully safeguarding its national interests.

A difficult geography requires strategic balance

Few countries operate in a geopolitical environment as complex as Azerbaijan’s.

Bordering Russia and Iran, closely linked with Türkiye, and positioned between Europe and Central Asia, Azerbaijan sits at one of the most sensitive geopolitical crossroads in Eurasia.

In such an environment, rigid alliances can quickly become strategic traps. Baku’s answer has been strategic diversification - maintaining relationships with multiple global actors rather than aligning exclusively with any single one.

The real question

Seen in this broader context, reducing Azerbaijan’s foreign policy to its relationship with Israel offers a distorted picture.

Azerbaijan today engages simultaneously with:

• Türkiye as its closest strategic ally;
• Europe as a major energy market;
• China as a trade and logistics partner;
• Russia as a necessary regional interlocutor;
• Central Asia as an economic hinterland;
• Israel as a technology and security partner.
• This is not the behaviour of a proxy state.

It is the behaviour of a country practising pragmatic sovereignty in a difficult neighbourhood.

As someone who has observed Azerbaijan closely for decades - and as a friend of the country - I would suggest that the real question is not why Azerbaijan trades energy with Israel or cooperates with Israeli companies.

Rather, it is this:

Why, when Azerbaijan maintains such a wide spectrum of global partnerships, is only the Israel dimension repeatedly singled out?

In an era of fragmented alliances and shifting power balances, Azerbaijan’s carefully calibrated multi-vector diplomacy - under President Ilham Aliyev’s leadership - may prove not only pragmatic but essential for navigating the geopolitical turbulence of our time.

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