Domestic economic conditions are playing a growing role in shaping the outlook for Azerbaijan, Armenia, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, according to global financial services group ING.
ING, which refers to the four economies as the CIS-4, said higher commodity prices are strengthening external and fiscal buffers in key exporting countries. In particular, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan are benefiting from currency stability and easing inflation, giving policymakers greater flexibility over interest rates.
In Armenia, ING said the recent parliamentary election result supports policy continuity, although unresolved tensions with Azerbaijan and uncertainty surrounding EU integration could weigh on investor sentiment.
With inflation remaining moderate, the Central Bank of Armenia is expected to keep its policy rate unchanged at 6.5% at its next meeting.
Azerbaijan is projected to benefit most from elevated energy prices, with stronger fuel revenues improving both its fiscal position and external balance. Analysts forecast a budget surplus of around 5% of GDP and a current account surplus of roughly 11% of GDP in 2026.
In Kazakhstan, despite a recent 100-basis-point interest rate cut, real interest rates remain elevated, while the tenge continues to be supported by non-oil exports and portfolio inflows.
ING expects the central bank to pause further monetary easing for now, although additional rate cuts may be possible later if currency stability is maintained.
Uzbekistan is seen as having the strongest case for further monetary easing, supported by the resumption of gold exports, renewed portfolio inflows and slowing inflation.
ING said the Central Bank of Uzbekistan could reduce its policy rate from 14% at its next meeting, even as many global central banks remain cautious.
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Delegations from Russia, Ukraine and the United States met in Abu Dhabi on Tuesday for their first formal talks in nine months. They did so with no agreement on what a ceasefire would be tied to or who gets to keep the land currently under Russian control.
At least 17 people have been reported killed in an explosion at a steel plant in western Türkiye, after a crane collapsed during maintenance work. The disaster has prompted a criminal investigation into what went wrong at the industrial facility.
U.S. envoy Jared Kushner said Washington believes the Russian President is prepared to reach a peace agreement under the right conditions, as U.S., Russian and Ukrainian delegations began trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi on Tuesday 10 November.
Armenia could lose its voting rights within the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) on 11 November after failing to pay membership fees for more than two years, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has said.
Here's your AnewZ Daily Brief for 11 November. Today, we cover Russia-Ukraine peace talks, political tensions in Washington, strikes in Spain, espionage allegations involving Nvidia's CEO, and climate negotiations at COP31 in Türkiye.
Pakistan is pushing for urgent global action and greater climate funding as Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif attends COP31 in Türkiye, warning that melting glaciers, devastating floods and extreme heat are putting millions of lives and livelihoods at risk.
Armenia has lost its voting rights and the ability to nominate officials for certain posts within the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). The decision was taken at a summit in Moscow on 11 November, amid years of strained relations between Yerevan and the alliance.
Heavy rain and strong winds have flooded around 70,000 tents across Gaza, leaving displaced Palestinian families exposed to cold, hunger and worsening living conditions as winter approaches, according to local authorities.
Trade along the Middle Corridor is accelerating, opening new opportunities for Central Asia and the South Caucasus as countries strengthen transport links between China and Europe. Cargo volumes reached around 4.7 million tonnes in 2025, up from less than one million tonnes in 2021.
Kazakhstan says the North Aral Sea’s water volume has risen by 24 per cent since 2022, reaching 23.4 billion cubic metres. The figures were unveiled at the COP31 climate conference in Antalya, Türkiye, as the country outlined ambitious plans to accelerate restoration.
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