The South Caucasus peace process is entering a sensitive phase, shaped not only by negotiations between Baku and Yerevan but also by competing external narratives, lobbying dynamics and shifting geopolitical alignments.
Speaking to AnewZ, Murad Muradov, Deputy Director at the Topchubashev Centre, said recent developments - including media reports, European political activity and lobbying claims - should be viewed within the broader context of a fragile but advancing peace trajectory between Azerbaijan and Armenia.
He described the current moment as “rare but fragile”, suggesting that while the region is closer to a peace agreement than at any point in recent years, external pressures are increasingly shaping how the process is perceived and discussed internationally.
He pointed to a recent report by Minval Politika alleging that former International Criminal Court prosecutor Luis Moreno Ocampo was involved in discussions about influencing European policy towards Azerbaijan and shaping political dynamics around Armenia.
The report includes claims of lobbying activity linked to Armenian diaspora groups and businessmen, as well as references to alleged attempts to influence European Union decision-making structures.
Only a limited fragment of the material is publicly available, he noted, adding that while the claims have not been independently verified, they have already entered political discourse.
The authenticity and full context remain unclear, with further disclosures promised by the outlet in the coming days.
Sustainable peace, he argued, must ultimately be driven by regional ownership rather than externally imposed frameworks.
A key theme in his analysis was the role of diaspora politics in shaping Western discourse on the region.
Narratives promoted in some European and U.S. political circles do not always reflect views within Armenia itself, where, in his assessment, there is greater awareness of the costs of renewed conflict and stronger interest in economic normalisation.
External lobbying structures, he suggested, may amplify more hardline positions, while domestic sentiment in Armenia could be more receptive to pragmatic engagement with Azerbaijan.
Upcoming parliamentary elections in Armenia were identified as a critical factor in determining the durability of the peace process.
They could prove “milestone elections”, potentially determining whether the current government under Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan retains power or whether opposition forces reshape the country’s political direction.
Scenarios discussed in Armenian political analysis include coalition arrangements or alternative leadership figures emerging if no single force secures a decisive mandate.
Any shift towards more nationalist or confrontational political forces could affect the trajectory of negotiations with Azerbaijan, he warned.
Beyond politics, practical progress will depend on economic and logistical integration measures, he emphasised.
Reopening transport routes and expanding regional trade were highlighted as key incentives that could accelerate implementation of agreements between the two countries.
Connectivity projects and transit cooperation, in his view, could help make the peace process more tangible and irreversible.
Despite ongoing disputes and competing narratives, the overall trajectory remains cautiously positive, with both Baku and Yerevan showing interest in stabilisation and long-term normalisation.
However, external pressure campaigns, electoral dynamics in Armenia, and contested interpretations of lobbying and influence efforts could still complicate the process.
The U.S. military said it completed a fresh wave of strikes on Iran late on Thursday, marking the 13th consecutive night of American attacks. The late...
Azerbaijani publication Minval Politika claims Armenia sharply increased military cargo flights during the first half of 2026, alleging Yerevan accele...
Foreign ministers of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) have concluded talks in Kyrgyzstan, approving key documents for the upcoming Bishkek ...
Start your day informed with AnewZ Morning Brief. Here are the top news stories for the 23rd of July, covering the latest developments you need to know.
U.S. strikes on Iran entered a 12th consecutive night, while Yemen's Houthis said they attacked two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, urging President Donald Trump to warn Tehran it would be held responsible for any future Houthi attacks.
India and Myanmar are expanding cooperation on rare earths as New Delhi seeks to reduce its reliance on China for critical minerals. The move follows a series of Indian visits to Myanmar and comes amid growing global competition for resources used in clean energy and high-tech industries.
Aleksandar Vučić's visit to Kyiv on 15 July appeared to send a geopolitical signal. But the significance of the trip lies less in the journey itself than in the limits Serbia carefully observed.
The owner of a Michelin two-star restaurant in South Korea is facing a year in prison for serving a dessert topped with black ants.
A new state agency wants the world to take Georgian food as seriously as Georgians already do.
Kazakhstan's grain sector faces a difficult season as drought reduces harvest prospects while mounting security risks in the Black Sea threaten to redirect cheaper Russian grain into Central Asian markets.
Uzbekistan welcomed 6.56 million foreign tourists in the first six months of 2026, a 24.9% increase compared with the same period last year, according to the National Statistics Committee. The figures underline the country's growing appeal as one of Central Asia's leading travel destinations.
Azerbaijani publication Minval Politika claims Armenia sharply increased military cargo flights during the first half of 2026, alleging Yerevan accelerated arms deliveries while publicly backing peace efforts with Azerbaijan.
Foreign ministers of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) have concluded talks in Kyrgyzstan, approving key documents for the upcoming Bishkek summit. Discussions focused on regional security, economic cooperation, transport links and shared challenges.
You can download the AnewZ application from Play Store and the App Store.
What is your opinion on this topic?
Leave the first comment