The South Caucasus peace process is entering a sensitive phase, shaped not only by negotiations between Baku and Yerevan but also by competing external narratives, lobbying dynamics and shifting geopolitical alignments.
Speaking to AnewZ, Murad Muradov, Deputy Director at the Topchubashev Centre, said recent developments - including media reports, European political activity and lobbying claims - should be viewed within the broader context of a fragile but advancing peace trajectory between Azerbaijan and Armenia.
He described the current moment as “rare but fragile”, suggesting that while the region is closer to a peace agreement than at any point in recent years, external pressures are increasingly shaping how the process is perceived and discussed internationally.
He pointed to a recent report by Minval Politika alleging that former International Criminal Court prosecutor Luis Moreno Ocampo was involved in discussions about influencing European policy towards Azerbaijan and shaping political dynamics around Armenia.
The report includes claims of lobbying activity linked to Armenian diaspora groups and businessmen, as well as references to alleged attempts to influence European Union decision-making structures.
Only a limited fragment of the material is publicly available, he noted, adding that while the claims have not been independently verified, they have already entered political discourse.
The authenticity and full context remain unclear, with further disclosures promised by the outlet in the coming days.
Sustainable peace, he argued, must ultimately be driven by regional ownership rather than externally imposed frameworks.
A key theme in his analysis was the role of diaspora politics in shaping Western discourse on the region.
Narratives promoted in some European and U.S. political circles do not always reflect views within Armenia itself, where, in his assessment, there is greater awareness of the costs of renewed conflict and stronger interest in economic normalisation.
External lobbying structures, he suggested, may amplify more hardline positions, while domestic sentiment in Armenia could be more receptive to pragmatic engagement with Azerbaijan.
Upcoming parliamentary elections in Armenia were identified as a critical factor in determining the durability of the peace process.
They could prove “milestone elections”, potentially determining whether the current government under Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan retains power or whether opposition forces reshape the country’s political direction.
Scenarios discussed in Armenian political analysis include coalition arrangements or alternative leadership figures emerging if no single force secures a decisive mandate.
Any shift towards more nationalist or confrontational political forces could affect the trajectory of negotiations with Azerbaijan, he warned.
Beyond politics, practical progress will depend on economic and logistical integration measures, he emphasised.
Reopening transport routes and expanding regional trade were highlighted as key incentives that could accelerate implementation of agreements between the two countries.
Connectivity projects and transit cooperation, in his view, could help make the peace process more tangible and irreversible.
Despite ongoing disputes and competing narratives, the overall trajectory remains cautiously positive, with both Baku and Yerevan showing interest in stabilisation and long-term normalisation.
However, external pressure campaigns, electoral dynamics in Armenia, and contested interpretations of lobbying and influence efforts could still complicate the process.
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