The South Caucasus peace process is entering a sensitive phase, shaped not only by negotiations between Baku and Yerevan but also by competing external narratives, lobbying dynamics and shifting geopolitical alignments.
Speaking to AnewZ, Murad Muradov, Deputy Director at the Topchubashev Centre, said recent developments - including media reports, European political activity and lobbying claims - should be viewed within the broader context of a fragile but advancing peace trajectory between Azerbaijan and Armenia.
He described the current moment as “rare but fragile”, suggesting that while the region is closer to a peace agreement than at any point in recent years, external pressures are increasingly shaping how the process is perceived and discussed internationally.
He pointed to a recent report by Minval Politika alleging that former International Criminal Court prosecutor Luis Moreno Ocampo was involved in discussions about influencing European policy towards Azerbaijan and shaping political dynamics around Armenia.
The report includes claims of lobbying activity linked to Armenian diaspora groups and businessmen, as well as references to alleged attempts to influence European Union decision-making structures.
Only a limited fragment of the material is publicly available, he noted, adding that while the claims have not been independently verified, they have already entered political discourse.
The authenticity and full context remain unclear, with further disclosures promised by the outlet in the coming days.
Sustainable peace, he argued, must ultimately be driven by regional ownership rather than externally imposed frameworks.
A key theme in his analysis was the role of diaspora politics in shaping Western discourse on the region.
Narratives promoted in some European and U.S. political circles do not always reflect views within Armenia itself, where, in his assessment, there is greater awareness of the costs of renewed conflict and stronger interest in economic normalisation.
External lobbying structures, he suggested, may amplify more hardline positions, while domestic sentiment in Armenia could be more receptive to pragmatic engagement with Azerbaijan.
Upcoming parliamentary elections in Armenia were identified as a critical factor in determining the durability of the peace process.
They could prove “milestone elections”, potentially determining whether the current government under Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan retains power or whether opposition forces reshape the country’s political direction.
Scenarios discussed in Armenian political analysis include coalition arrangements or alternative leadership figures emerging if no single force secures a decisive mandate.
Any shift towards more nationalist or confrontational political forces could affect the trajectory of negotiations with Azerbaijan, he warned.
Beyond politics, practical progress will depend on economic and logistical integration measures, he emphasised.
Reopening transport routes and expanding regional trade were highlighted as key incentives that could accelerate implementation of agreements between the two countries.
Connectivity projects and transit cooperation, in his view, could help make the peace process more tangible and irreversible.
Despite ongoing disputes and competing narratives, the overall trajectory remains cautiously positive, with both Baku and Yerevan showing interest in stabilisation and long-term normalisation.
However, external pressure campaigns, electoral dynamics in Armenia, and contested interpretations of lobbying and influence efforts could still complicate the process.
China’s ruling Communist Party is stepping up oversight of technology firms, internet platforms and digital finance in a sweeping drive to ta...
A wave of bomb threats targeting passenger flights has disrupted air travel across Europe, forcing diversions, airport closures and fighter jet esc...
U.S. President Donald Trump says Washington will end its annual financial and military aid to Israel by the end of 2026, under an agreement he clai...
Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf says the U.S. must act to prevent war after Tehran sent a “strong and rational response” to Washington. Meanwhile, U.S. forces have reportedly carried out limited strikes against Iranian targets, including Qeshm Island,
Hundreds of millions of U.S. citizens head to the polls on 3 November to elect the House of Representatives and Senate. How they vote could influence the direction of Donald Trump’s remaining 26 months in office and the outcomes of the Ukraine and Iran conflicts.
A six-day humanitarian ceasefire in the Russian-held Ukrainian town of Oleshky ended on Sunday, 1 November, after facilitating aid deliveries and civilian evacuations.
Kyrgyzstan has emerged as Central Asia’s fastest-growing economy, fuelled by a construction boom, public investment and trade linked to Russia. But with Western sanctions tightening, can the country sustain its rapid growth?
Russia airstrikes on a school used as a humanitarian aid distribution point in southeastern Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia region killed at least 26 people, including rescue workers and police officers, Ukrainian officials said. Another 27 people were reported missing.
A new book examining Azerbaijan’s military strategy, technology and operations during the Garabagh wars has been unveiled in Baku, offering insights into the country’s victories and lessons for modern warfare.
Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf says the U.S. must act to prevent war after Tehran sent a “strong and rational response” to Washington. Meanwhile, U.S. forces have reportedly carried out limited strikes against Iranian targets, including Qeshm Island,
Tajikistan has banned electronic cigarettes and nicotine delivery systems, becoming the latest Central Asian country to outlaw their production, import and sale as part of a wider push to protect public health.
Kyrgyzstan has emerged as Central Asia’s fastest-growing economy, fuelled by a construction boom, public investment and trade linked to Russia. But with Western sanctions tightening, can the country sustain its rapid growth?
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said the government plans to publish a draft of the country's new constitution in November, with public consultations to follow, as constitutional reforms remain a key issue in efforts to secure a final peace agreement with Azerbaijan.
You can download the AnewZ application from Play Store and the App Store.
What is your opinion on this topic?
Leave the first comment