Any U.S. military strike on Iran would almost certainly trigger cross-border retaliation and could ignite a wider regional war, according to political analyst James M. Dorsey.
Speaking to AnewZ, Dorsey said both Washington and Tehran are trying to avoid war, but that their public positions and political constraints are pushing them closer to confrontation. He said Washington and Tehran are effectively “boxed into a corner”, even as both signal a preference for negotiations rather than military action.
“I think it’s clear that both US President Trump and Iran would like to avoid a military confrontation. The problem is that they’ve both, in many ways, boxed themselves into a corner from which it’s going to be very difficult to escape with some sort of face-saving solution for both sides.”
However, he warned that the structural realities of any conflict would make escalation difficult to contain and that, because Tehran has few internal targets to hit, it would instead respond against US and allied positions across the Middle East.
“There are no Israeli or US targets inside Iran, so by definition Iranian retaliatory strikes would have to be cross-border, presumably in Israel and potentially US military facilities in the Gulf and maybe even Gulf infrastructure.”
While Washington has raised a broad list of demands, Dorsey said only the nuclear file offers realistic scope for compromise.
“The United States has several issues it wants to resolve ... nuclear, ballistic missiles, the crackdown on protesters, even though the protests for now have subsided and finally Iranian support for its non-state allies elsewhere in the Middle East.”
However, he stressed that Iran’s missile programme is not negotiable for any government in Tehran.
“There is a face-saving solution to be found, presumably on nuclear. But an issue like ballistic missiles is something that no Iranian government, whether Islamic revolutionary or post-revolutionary, would be able to accept. Ballistic missiles are core in the absence of any credible air force or navy.”
Against this backdrop, Iran has signalled readiness to explore diplomacy. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has ordered the start of nuclear talks with the United States, according to Iranian media, while sources in Tehran say negotiations involving senior officials from both countries could begin in the coming days.
The recent exchange of terrorist designations between Iran and the European Union, Dorsey said, is reinforcing confrontation rather than encouraging dialogue.
“It doesn’t really contribute. The problem here is that you’ve had belligerent language, both from the United States and from Iran and that belligerent language is mutually reinforcing rather than conducive to creating an environment in which a negotiated way out could be found.”
Dorsey said Iran’s recent protests stem largely from economic hardship, not foreign manipulation.
“There’s no doubt that there is widespread dissatisfaction in Iran, accelerated by the radical economic downturn that we’ve seen in recent months, the collapse of the Iranian currency, and mushrooming or spiralling inflation.”
“These protests were genuine, and Iran has a history - the Islamic Republic has a history since 1979 - of protests over various issues.”
He added that even if provocations occurred, they do not change the underlying nature of the unrest.
“That does not detract from the genuineness of these protests.”
Some regional states are quietly trying to lower tensions by urging a gradual approach.
“Türkiye is trying to do that alongside countries like Qatar. The Turkish foreign minister, in a recent interview, suggested to the Americans that rather than trying to resolve all issues at once, they take it issue by issue, starting with the nuclear problem.”
The scale of any conflict would depend heavily on the nature of Washington’s actions.
“Is it a one-time strike? Is it a sustained military campaign? What is the United States going to target?”
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The U.S. Customs and Border Protection agency will halt the collection of tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act on Tuesday (24 February), more than three days after the U.S. Supreme Court declared the duties unlawful.
A British national was among at least 19 people killed when a passenger bus plunged off a mountain highway into the Trishuli river in Nepal before dawn on Monday (23 February), authorities said. A New Zealander and a Chinese national were among those injured.
Against a backdrop of mounting environmental pressure across Central Asia, the Kazakh Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources has announced that the Regional Ecological Summit (RES) 2026 will take place from 22–24 April in Astana.
Iran has signed a secret €500 million arms deal with Russia to rebuild air defences, weakened during last year’s war with Israel, the Financial Times has reported. The agreement, signed in December in Moscow, will see Russia deliver 500 Verba launch units and 2,500 9M336 missiles over three years.
A seven-month-old Japanese macaque has drawn international attention after forming an unusual bond with a stuffed orangutan toy after being rejected by its mother.
Divers have recovered the bodies of seven Chinese tourists and a Russian driver after their minibus broke through the ice of on Lake Baikal in Russia, authorities said.
President Donald Trump said on Saturday (21 February) that he will raise temporary tariffs on nearly all U.S. imports from 10% to 15%, the maximum allowed under the law, after the Supreme Court struck down his previous tariff program.
Pakistan said it carried out cross-border strikes on militant targets inside Afghanistan after blaming a series of recent suicide bombings, including attacks during the holy month of Ramadan, on fighters it said were operating from Afghan territory.
Iran announced on Saturday (21 February) that it has designated the naval and air forces of European Union member states as “terrorist entities” in a reciprocal move after the EU blacklisted the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
Central Asia’s population could reach 96 million by 2040, according to the head of the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB), highlighting both the region’s economic potential and the growing strain on infrastructure, trade routes and long-term development models.
Iran has signed a secret €500 million arms deal with Russia to rebuild air defences, weakened during last year’s war with Israel, the Financial Times has reported. The agreement, signed in December in Moscow, will see Russia deliver 500 Verba launch units and 2,500 9M336 missiles over three years.
Syria has secured a $50 million financing package from the World Bank to support transport infrastructure projects as the country advances its economic recovery efforts, Syrian media reported on Sunday.
The United States and Iran will hold a new round of nuclear negotiations in Geneva on Thursday as part of renewed diplomatic efforts to reach a potential agreement, Oman’s Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi announced on Sunday.
Islamic State claimed two attacks on Syrian army personnel on Saturday (22 February), saying they marked the start of a new phase of operations against the country’s leadership under President Ahmed al-Sharaa.
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