China’s annual “Two Sessions” meetings, held from March 4 to 11, offered fresh insight into the country's climate and energy outlook for 2025.
While climate was mentioned across government reports and speeches, analysts say economic growth and energy security remain dominant priorities — with climate goals taking a secondary role.
What are the “Two Sessions”?
The "Two Sessions" refers to the annual gatherings of:
The National People’s Congress (NPC), China’s top legislative body
The Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), an advisory political body
Together, these meetings set China’s policy agenda for the year, including goals for GDP, energy use, emissions, and environmental regulation.
Key Takeaways on Climate and Energy
1. Energy and Carbon Intensity Targets
China aims to reduce energy intensity (energy use per unit of GDP) by 3% in 2025.
This metric excludes renewables and nuclear, focusing only on fossil fuel consumption.
Analysts say this low target means China is likely to miss its five-year energy intensity and carbon intensity goals, especially given a sluggish trend in efficiency gains.
“It’s an inconvenient truth that China’s economy has not become much more energy efficient in recent years,” said Greenpeace East Asia’s Yao Zhe.
2. Coal Continues to Play a Supporting Role
The government affirmed coal’s “basic supporting role” in the energy system.
New initiatives include low-carbon upgrades for coal-fired power plants rather than a phase-out.
The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said it will “continue to increase coal production.”
“There is little interest in phasing out coal for now,” said CSIS analyst Ilaria Mazzocco.
3. Renewables Expansion Still on Track
Despite coal’s continued presence, China will push ahead with:
New energy bases in deserts and coastal areas
Offshore wind development
Grid upgrades to integrate renewables
Zero-carbon industrial parks and local carbon-peaking pilot programs
4. Carbon Market and Regulation
China plans to expand its national carbon trading market to include more sectors.
The shift from “dual-control” of energy to dual-control of carbon emissions is also on the agenda, though details remain limited.
5. Consumption-Driven Growth
Economic priorities shifted in 2025 to boosting domestic demand over innovation or low-carbon development.
A 300 billion yuan ($41 billion) trade-in program is being introduced to support electric vehicle (EV) adoption and other low-carbon purchases.
However, sectors like real estate and infrastructure — historically energy-intensive — may receive fresh stimulus.
6. Green Industries and Market Pressures
The report acknowledged problems of “involution” — or harmful competition — in sectors like EVs and solar.
The government aims to better regulate the NEV, battery, and solar industries to avoid oversupply and price crashes.
7. Geopolitical and Trade Considerations
China pledged to respond to “green trade barriers”, including the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM).
Foreign Minister Wang Yi stressed a desire to resolve disputes with the EU through dialogue.
8. Extreme Weather and Resilience
Extreme weather events were recognized as a factor hindering progress on energy and emissions targets.
The government promised to strengthen disaster preparedness and response systems, especially for floods, droughts, and typhoons.
Legislative Outlook and Long-Term Signals
NPC delegates raised over 700 proposals on ecological and climate issues.
Two bills proposed a national climate change law, and work continues on an environment and ecology code and atomic energy legislation.
At a key meeting with officials from Jiangsu province, President Xi Jinping emphasized the need to avoid economic bubbles while pushing forward green industrial upgrades.
“Energy is now seen as a tool to support rapid economic growth and technological transformation, not a stand-alone climate goal,” said Mazzocco.
Conclusion
While China reiterated its commitment to its “dual-carbon” goals — peaking emissions before 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060 — the 2025 Two Sessions reflected a cautious approach to climate policy. Economic growth, energy security, and geopolitical resilience continue to outweigh aggressive emissions cuts or coal phase-out efforts in the near term.
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