Uzbekistan could lose up to $1.5 billion if escalating Middle East tensions disrupt vital trade and logistics routes through Iran, putting pressure on supply chains and the wider economy.
The potential losses, estimated at $1–1.5 billion, are equivalent to around 0.7–1 per cent of GDP, according to the country’s Fiscal Strategy for 2027–2029.
In 2025, goods worth $3.9 billion were transported to Uzbekistan through Iranian territory, accounting for around 9 per cent of the country’s total imports. The scale of the trade underscores Iran’s importance not only as a trading partner, but as a key transit route linking Uzbekistan with international markets.
Uzbekistan and Iran have sought to strengthen those connections. In June 2025, the two countries signed a memorandum aimed at expanding transit cooperation, including potential Uzbek investment in Iran’s Shahid Rajaee port and the construction of a dedicated terminal and logistics centre.
A wide range of goods moves through Iran, with machinery and technological equipment accounting for a significant share. Other shipments include food products, chemicals, metals, vehicles and spare parts, pharmaceuticals and electrical equipment. Uzbek exports using the route include textiles, metals and chemicals.
Some of these supply chains ultimately depend on access to Iran’s southern ports and maritime routes connected to the Strait of Hormuz.
The Strait is one of the world’s most important shipping chokepoints. The International Energy Agency estimates that nearly 20 million barrels of oil per day passed through it in 2025, representing around a quarter of global seaborne oil trade. It is also an important route for liquefied natural gas (LNG), petroleum products and fertilisers.
For Uzbekistan, the potential impact goes well beyond its direct trade with Iran. Disruptions to shipping, insurance, ports and transit routes could lengthen delivery times and drive up freight costs, while rerouting cargo could put additional pressure on already lengthy supply chains.
The Ministry of Economy and Finance estimates that disruptions to foreign trade and logistics could cost the Uzbek economy $1–1.5 billion. Authorities also warn that higher global prices for oil, food and fertilisers could fuel inflation and weigh on broader economic performance.
The potential disruption is adding urgency to Uzbekistan’s efforts to diversify its transport links. The country has been developing alternative corridors through the Caspian Sea and the South Caucasus, while also working with neighbouring countries to expand multimodal connections.
In June 2025, Uzbekistan and Iran agreed to create conditions for Uzbek private-sector investment in Shahid Rajaee port, including a dedicated terminal and logistics centre.
Despite efforts to diversify, Uzbekistan remains significantly dependent on Iranian transit. According to analysis by the Institute for Advanced International Studies, the country transported around 1.2 million tonnes of cargo through Iran in 2025, with shipments moving towards Türkiye and Western markets.
Bilateral economic ties are continuing to expand despite the logistical risks. Uzbekistan’s trade turnover with Iran reached $305 million in January–June 2026, up 37.5 per cent year on year.
The two countries are also discussing 29 joint projects and preparing for a business forum scheduled to take place in Tashkent in November.
For Uzbekistan, the challenge is not only to maintain trade with Iran, but to ensure that disruptions along the southern route do not undermine access to wider international markets.
The growing risks are increasing pressure on Tashkent to diversify its logistics network, strengthen alternative corridors and build more resilient supply chains.
For centuries, Lahore has been shaped by the people, cultures and empires that passed through it. Now, the Pakistani city is preparing to put that ...
A U.S. campaign to throttle Iran...
The resolution, sponsored by African countries and led by Togo, passed by 164 votes to one, with six abstention...
Russian President Vladimir Putin has said that he thinks there is a chance of a peace being reached with Ukraine. He told the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok, Russia that he believed there was "a chance of finding a solution," to the conflict.
The Iranian Health Ministry said at least 18 people were killed and 142 others injured in U.S. airstrikes carried out between 30 August and 2 September.
U.S. negotiators Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner will visit Russia then Ukraine over the weekend, Russian state news agency TASS has reported, citing an unnamed source. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has also said American envoys will visit the capitals of both countries.
The Iranian Army has again struck at U.S. bases in Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates in retaliation for U.S. attacks on southern and western parts of Iran late on Tuesday, which reportedly killed 18 people and injured more than 100 others.
U.S. efforts to squeeze Iran’s economy through an oil blockade and sanctions are becoming increasingly difficult for Tehran to withstand, according to three senior Iranian sources. Washington is escalating pressure in hopes of securing concessions in future negotiations.
A unique architectural monument dating back to the 9th to 12th centuries has been discovered in the village of Gargara, in the Korez village commune in Dangara district in Tajikistan.
Japan and the UN Office on Drugs and Crime have launched a $9.4 million, two-year project across five Afghan provinces to help former poppy-growing families and expand drug prevention and treatment services.
For centuries, Lahore has been shaped by the people, cultures and empires that passed through it. Now, the Pakistani city is preparing to put that rich history before a wider regional audience.
Israel is ready to move Palestinians from Gaza as soon as the U.S. approves, the country’s Defence Minister Israel Katz has said. He told a conference hosted by Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth on Wednesday that there was “no real solution” for Gaza without migration.
Flights between Central Asia and Russia have faced widespread disruption, with aircraft diverted, turned back or cancelled amid restrictions in Russian airspace and conflicting claims from Moscow and Kyiv over aviation safety.
You can download the AnewZ application from Play Store and the App Store.
What is your opinion on this topic?
Leave the first comment