Oil prices fell 2% as OPEC downgraded its global demand forecast and China's oil imports dropped for the fifth consecutive month. Concerns over Israeli-Iran tensions also weighed on markets, with Brent settling at $77.46 per barrel and WTI at $73.83 per barrel.
Oil prices dropped 2% on Monday as OPEC revised down its expectations for global oil demand growth in 2024 and 2025, coinciding with China's oil imports declining for the fifth month in a row.
Investor confidence was not boosted by China’s stimulus efforts, while attention remained on potential Israeli strikes against Iranian oil facilities. Brent crude futures closed down $1.58, or 2%, at $77.46 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell $1.73, or 2.29%, to $73.83 per barrel. Last week, Brent had increased by 99 cents, and WTI rose by $1.18.
After-hours trading saw Brent drop more than $4, or 5%, following reports that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu informed the U.S. of Israel's willingness to target Iranian military sites, excluding nuclear or oil facilities. Additionally, U.S. heating oil futures fell 5%, and gasoline futures decreased by over 4%.
OPEC's forecast for global oil demand growth in 2024 has been revised down for the third consecutive time, largely due to lower expectations for China, which accounts for a significant portion of this year's downgrade. OPEC reduced its forecast for Chinese oil demand to 580,000 barrels per day (bpd) from 650,000 bpd.
In the first nine months of the year, China's crude imports fell nearly 3% from the previous year to 10.99 million bpd.
Decreasing demand in China is attributed to the rise of electric vehicles (EVs) and a slowdown in economic growth post-COVID-19, negatively impacting global oil consumption and prices. This negative outlook from China overshadowed market worries about potential disruptions in oil production following an Israeli response to Iran's missile attack on October 1.
The U.S. announced its decision to deploy troops and an advanced anti-missile system to Israel to enhance its air defenses. “While an attack by Israel into Iran is likely to happen, the latest reinforcing measures by the US military may have calmed the responses on both sides,” noted Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of trading at BOK Financial.
He added, “A nervous trade will remain with most fund managers remaining on the sidelines.” Meanwhile, U.S. officials have been discreetly advising Israel to carefully consider its response to avoid triggering a larger conflict in the Middle East.
President Biden has also publicly expressed his opposition to an Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities and concerns over potential attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure.
Additionally, the dollar reached a nine-week peak on Monday during light trading, which can negatively impact demand for dollar-denominated oil among buyers using other currencies.
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In a significant development for Afghanistan-Russia relations, Zamir Kabulov, Special Envoy of the Russian President, held high-level talks with Taliban officials in Kabul, signaling a further warming of ties between the two nations.
Russia and Türkiye will hold consultations on the Middle East, including Syria and Palestine, on 25th April in Istanbul, according to a Turkish Foreign Ministry source speaking to TASS.
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer is nearing a defence deal with the EU to reset post-Brexit ties, even as his government courts a U.S. trade deal. Talks will culminate at a May summit, aiming to boost cooperation in defence, energy, and youth mobility.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has firmly rejected claims that the Trump administration is considering lifting sanctions on Russia’s Nord Stream 2 pipeline as part of negotiations to end the war in Ukraine.
UEFA has opened a new office in Istanbul to support the organization of major tournaments, including the 2026 Europa League final, 2027 Conference League final, and EURO 2032. President Ceferin praised Türkiye’s hosting record and ongoing collaboration.
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