OPEC sees stronger global outlook, steady oil demand through summer

OPEC expects improved economic performance in H2 2025 to support oil demand, with high refinery intake driven by summer travel and resilient growth in key markets.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said Tuesday that the global economy could outperform earlier expectations in the second half of 2025, helping sustain oil demand despite trade tensions and market uncertainty.

In its monthly oil market report, OPEC maintained its forecasts for demand growth in both 2025 and 2026, citing robust economic activity in major emerging economies. “India, China, and Brazil are outperforming expectations so far, while the United States and the Eurozone are experiencing a continued rebound from last year,” the report noted.

OPEC added that high crude intake at refineries, driven by increased summer travel, would help maintain elevated demand levels.

Meanwhile, the broader OPEC+ group — which includes non-OPEC allies such as Russia — increased output by 349,000 barrels per day in June, bringing total production to 41.56 million bpd. This figure falls just short of the 411,000 bpd increase outlined in the group’s latest quotas.

The boost in production signals OPEC+'s effort to regain market share after prolonged output cuts aimed at supporting prices.

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