OPEC+ will increase oil production by 547,000 barrels per day in September after eight members of the organisation held a brief virtual meeting on Sunday. They said the company will continue to accelerate its output hikes to regain market share.
The decision comes amid growing concerns about supply disruptions linked to Russia.
This move fully reverses the group’s largest previous output cuts and adds to a separate increase from the United Arab Emirates, together totaling about 2.5 million barrels per day, roughly 2.4% of global demand.
The decision comes during intensified U.S. efforts to pressure India into stopping Russian oil imports, part of Washington’s strategy to push Moscow toward peace talks over Ukraine, with President Donald Trump aiming for progress by 8 August.
OPEC+ cited strong economic conditions and low inventory levels as key reasons for boosting supply. Despite increased production, oil prices remain high, with Brent crude closing near $70 a barrel on Friday, up from a low of about $58 in April. Rising seasonal demand also supports prices.
Energy analyst Amrita Sen said strong prices and tight supplies have boosted OPEC+’s confidence in raising output. The group will meet again on 7 September to possibly revisit 1.65 million bpd in cuts set to last through 2026.
UBS’s Giovanni Staunovo highlighted that markets have absorbed the increased supply well, partly due to stockpiling in China.
"So far the market has been able to absorb very well those additional barrels also due to stockpiliing activity in China," said Giovanni Staunovo of UBS. "All eyes will now shift on the Trump decision on Russia this Friday."
In addition to the voluntary 1.65 million bpd cut by the eight members, OPEC+ maintains a 2 million bpd cut across all members, which expires at the end of 2026.
Former OPEC official Jorge Leon praised the coalition for fully reversing its largest cut without causing price crashes but cautioned that managing the remaining cuts.
"But the next task will be even harder; deciding if and when to unwind the remaining 1.66 million barrels, all while navigating geopolitical tension and preserving cohesion."
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